On Sports Betting: Golden Knights, Rebels Present Close Calls for Recreational Handicappers
It was the Vegas Golden Knights vs. the Minnesota Wild and it looked like an almost dead-even matchup. The Golden Knights were 28-21 and the Wild were 26-23. The Wild were 16-8 at home, the Golden Knights 14-11 away. The Wild had a better record in the last 10 games, but the Knights were getting William Karlsson back.
With the Wild at home on Tuesday, it should have been “pick” or Wild maybe -110, right?
Nope.
In fact, the Golden Knights were favored and in fact the number rose as high as -150.
What’s a recreational handicapper to do? A simulation showed the Knights with a very slight edge, but certainly there was value in the Wild at +130.
We were tempted to play the Wild. We were even briefly tempted by the Wild on the reverse puck line at a very sweet +350.
We ultimately decided to pass on the game and play a consensus selection in college hoops, Northern Illinois +7.
And what happened in the hockey game? As every one knows by now, the Wild blanked the Golden Knights, 4-0.
“I think everybody in the building could see that we weren’t ready to play tonight,” the Golden Knights Reilly Smith told The Associated Press. “We’ve got to change that and change that quick.”
Ya think?
And that basketball game? Northern Illinois trailed by as many as 13 before rallying for a backdoor cover, losing, 63-59.
The basketball game with UNR at UNLV the following day was equally interesting from a recreational handicapper’s standpoint. UNR brought perhaps at better-balanced team to the Thomas & Mack in Las Vegas. But you could argue new coach T.J. Otzelberger and his team would be ready to make a statement against the Wolf Pack.
An “expert” at ESPN made UNLV at -2 one of his top selections of the day. A simulation at another website saw UNLV winning by one point.
We were skeptical. Highly skeptical.
We didn’t play the game, electing instead to go with the crowd on Louisville -6.
The local game turned out to be a thriller with 11,607 reported attendance and raucous fans that witnessed a game that went to overtime before UNR prevailed, 82-79.
“It was a good college basketball game. Obviously, I feel for our guys that we didn’t come out on the other end of the game,” Otzelberger said after the game. “We just have to do a better job of being attentive to every detail in games like that to come out with a victory.”
But ultimately it was Wolf Pack bettors who were cashing tickets at the window. Over bettors needed overtime to get the total over 149.5.
And Louisville? The Cardinals lost outright to Georgia Tech, 64-58.
The Golden Knights game on Thursday was no easier to handicap. Would you really want to lay -140 with the VGK vs. the Stanley Cup champs?
With the Golden Knights trailing 3-2 after the first period, those who laid the number on the local team had to be apprehensive.
But the game was tied at 5 at the end of regulation, and the Knights won in overtime, 6-5, easily sending the total over six.
“The crowd was awesome for us,” said Jonathan Marchessault, who scored the winning goal. “We wanted to get them on our side again. We owed them a couple of wins there. It’s good to get the first one.”
Bettors would have agreed.
With the win, the VGK improved to 5-3-2 under DeBoer. They were just 3 for 26 on the power play in their first nine games under DeBoer, The AP noted, but finished 4 for 5 on Thursday.
By Saturday, there was a slew of consensus play in college hoops at Covers, popular betting website. One of them was the New Mexico Lobos, which was -3 and hosting the Runnin’ Rebels.
We didn’t disagree and were very tempted by that play. But we passed in favor of an Ivy League matchup, Princeton -4.5 vs. Brown.
The Runnin’ Rebels stunned New Mexico with a strong second half showing to win, 78-73. It was an impressive performance for Otzelberger’s team, which improved to 13-14 with the win.
Otzelberger after the game to The AP: “Our guys really stuck together. … They played really hard for each other, shared the basketball. … I thought they were really competitive and stuck together in key moments to find a way.”
In case you wondered, the Princeton Tigers took down the Brown Bears, 73-54.
And later Saturday, the Knights were steep favorites, -180, against the New York Islanders even though the Islanders owned a better record (33-17 vs. 29-22 for the Knights) and a respectable road mark (15-10 vs. an identical home record for the Knights.)
Did that mean there was value on the Islanders? At +160, you could make a case.
But it was the Knights who prevailed, 1-0, as Marc-Andre Fleury notched his 60th career shutout.
Arguably the most explosive moment in the low-scoring affair came a mere seconds into the game when the Islanders Russ Johnston and the Golden Knights Ryan Reaves agreed to drop gloves and swap blows to cheers from the 18,444 fans that included boxer Tyson Fury.
And if you didn’t mind laying -180, you were able to cash a ticket.
And while you could have parlayed with under 5.5 or even 6, there were no prop bets that we saw on a staged “fight” breaking out.
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What’s next:
— The Vegas Golden Knights host the Washington on Monday. VGK are -135 with the total at 6.5.
— UNLV hosts Colorado State on Tuesday.
— An actual WBC heavyweight fight between Fury and Deontay Wilder goes Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Both sides are -110. (StubHub notes that “good” value seats are still available at $9,025 each. Others can be found at lesser amounts.)
