On Sports Betting: It May Be Early, But Oddsmakers Have Sharpened Their Line-Setting Tools

By Daniel Behringer

LVSportsBiz.com

 

It was only Week One of college football, but oddsmakers had already honed their line-setting tools.

In the widely watched Labor Day game featuring Notre Dame at Louisville, oddsmakers opened Notre Dame early at -20. That number climbed to as high as -21 a few days before the game. Then just as quickly, it veered in the opposite direction, falling to -18 on game day before rising again to 19, 19.5 or even 20 just before kickoff.

Those numbers turned out to be right on target with Notre Dame prevailing, 35-17. If you had -18 on Notre Dame or +18 on Louisville, you earned a push. Any other number greater than 18 was a winner on Louisville and a loser with Notre Dame.

Yeah, it’s frequently that close. And yeah, the “sharps” and in-game bettors were probably zeroing on in quickly fluctuating numbers throughout the game that saw the score tied at 14 in the first half before Notre Dame scored to make it 21-14 at halftime.

Of course, that was a distant memory by the time the NFL season officially kicked off on Thursday with the Packers vs. the Bears. We were out and about and witnessed a lively crowd at one of the Las Vegas race and sports books. In fact, situated close to the book, we heard a piercing shriek as the game got under way. Touchdown? Field goal? Nope, it was just excitement over a particular play or disputed call.

But while there were crowds huddled over parlay sheets in the book watching a largely defensive battle between two NFL rivals unfold on the big screens, there was a major upset brewing in the WNBA.

The unheralded Atlanta Dream, 11-point home underdogs to the Las Vegas Aces, rode a strong second-half performance, in which they outscored the Aces, 51-32, in the third and fourth quarters, to win the game outright, 78-74. The Dream, owners of an unremarkable 8-25 record, closed at +500 on the money line, according to Vegas Insider.

Of course, the crowds were back on Saturday for Week 2 of college football. And Major League Baseball. And Triple A baseball. And the CFL. And the U.S. Open. Or UFC 242. Or maybe to invest in a ticket in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series set to go Sunday at the Indy Brickyard.

Early Saturday, there was two guys sitting at a bar, agreeing with each other on the wisdom of their college football picks.

There was another guy asking a supervisor in the book when the betting line for Las Vegas Aviators would go up.

And there were ticket writers, hustling and calling customers to open windows.

In short, it was a typical Saturday morning in our sports-crazed society.

When the dust settled, No. 1 Clemson beat Texas A&M, 24-10, but failed to cover -16. No. 2 Alabama punished New Mexico State, 62-10 but did not cover -55. No. 3 Georgia drilled Murray State, 63-17, but couldn’t cover -49.5.

Talk about putting up some close numbers.

However, Oklahoma covered -49 in its 72-14 win over South Dakota, and No. 5 Ohio State covered -15 handily in blanking Cincinnati, 42-0. In a nationally televised game that aired early on the West Coast, Army came within a play or two of upsetting Michigan but handily rewarded bettors getting anywhere from +21.5 to +23.5 in a 24-21 double OT loss.

Meanwhile in the UFC 242, lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, a name that has to strike fear in newspaper headline writers everywhere, defeated interim titleholder Dustin Poirer in Abu Dhabi. Nurmagomedov was -450.

And in the U.S. Open Final, teenager Bianca Andreescu, upset Serena Williams, 6-3, 7-5. Andreescu was about +250 at the betting window.

Later in the day, the Red Wolves from Arkansas State carved up UNLV, 43-17. UNLV opened at -2 but action on Arkansas State took the line to “pick” at game time.

Obviously, the NFL ruled on Sunday. There were boisterous SRO crowds, and they weren’t there to watch Major League Baseball or NASCAR. It was a good day for many public teams and popular picks, which means the books generally didn’t fare well as they typically do.

— The Baltimore Ravens at -7, the No. 1 consensus pick in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest and also a popular choice in the twitterverse, mauled the Miami Dolphins, 59-10.

— The Kansas City Chiefs, which closed at -3.5, beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, 40-26, and the total easily went “over”49.

— The Los Angeles Rams, which closed at -1.5 vs. the Carolina Panthers, won 30-27, and a parlay with “over” 49.5 clicked nicely.

— The Dallas Cowboys, -7 vs. the New York Giants, rolled to a 35-17 win, and the total easily eclipsed 44.5.

— The New England Patriots, -5.5, rolled over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football, 33-3, but “over” 49 was never seriously threatened.

If you think it’s that easy, beware of the scary movie, “Revenge of the Books,” which plays on many NFL weekends. Also consider:

— The Philadelphia Eagles, the biggest favorite of the day at -10, needed a big second-half rally to win, but failed to cover in their 32-27 win.

— Perhaps a surprise to some, but predicted by some of the professional touts, the Tennessee Titans at +5.5 routed the Cleveland Browns, 43-13.

Also Sunday, the Las Vegas Aces got back in the win (and cover) column. Laying 3.5 on the road at Phoenix Mercury, the Aces responded with a 98-89 win

So, what’s next?

— There’s a Monday Night Football double-header on Monday evening with Houston, also a popular pick at +7 in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, vs. New Orleans. Also the line seems to have settled at around Denver -2.5 vs. Oakland in the late game.

—  The Las Vegas Aces will host a second-round WNBA playoff game on Sept. 15.

— If daytime Las Vegas temperature dipping below 100 reminds you of hockey season, the Vegas Golden Knights’ first preseason game, vs. the Phoenix Coyotes, is also Sept. 15.

*