On Sports Betting: You Pays Your Money And You Takes Your Chances

By Daniel Behringer

LVSportsBiz.com

 

On Monday, the touts at a popular website affiliated with a major television network were virtually unanimous in their endorsement of the Toronto Raptors beating and covering -7.5 against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 2.

— “Raptors get the cover,” said a former Vegas bookmaker.

— “I’ll take the Raptors to cover again,” said an NBA fantasy analyst.

— “Toronto should win by double figures again,” wrote a staff analyst.

At least two mentioned Joel Embiid’s reported weakened physical condition, ranging from stomach illness to the flu.

There was only one minor problem with all these picks.

They were all wrong. Dead wrong. Woefully and incredibly wrong.

The Raptors not only did not cover, they did not win, coming up on the opposite end of a 94-89 score in Game 2 of their series with the Sixers. Embiid finished with 12 points, five assists and six rebounds, not too shabby for a guy supposedly close to an Uber ride away from Urgent Care.

And so it goes in the world of sports betting. Even the best and brightest can be wrong.

Dead wrong.

Woefully and incredibly wrong.

By Tuesday, the touts on the same web site were virtually unanimous in their opinions that the Houston Rockets could cover and possibly win outright Game 2 vs. the Golden State Warriors. And their views made some sense. After all, Houston had given the Warriors a tough fight in Game 1 and without some disputed calls might have won the game. They lost that game, 104-100, but covered +6. So +5 looked like a pretty good bet in Game 2, the touts suggested.

Unfortunately, they were wrong again as Warriors rolled to a 115-109 victory.

Whether it’s the NBA, Major League baseball or the Bundesliga, everyone has an opinion. And some people get paid to have an opinion. But that doesn’t mean you have to buy what they’re selling.

Full disclosure: We played neither of the first two games in the Warriors-Rockets series.

On Thursday, the touts were back, convinced the Raptors were good enough to lay 1.5 on the road vs. the Sixers.

“Look for the Raptors to rebound with a strong performance to win and cover in Game 3,” the NBA fantasy analyst wrote.

While we didn’t play the game, we were highly suspicious of that and saw nothing to convince us to lay points on the road with the Raptors. And we weren’t the least surprised when the Sixers stormed to a 115-96 win over the Raptors.

By Friday, we had read enough of the touts’ predictions and had a little folding money in our pocket. We scanned the  Major League baseball board and ordered up a three-team parlay: the Washington Nationals on the run line vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, the Oakland A’s at +115 vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Twins-Yankees game to go over 7.5 runs. The final on the Twins-Yankees game was 6-3, the A’s scorched the Pirates, 14-1, but the Phillies, powered by a three-run home run from someone other than Bryce Harper, edged the Nats, 4-2.

And so, as nearly every parlay player has said innumerable times, we missed it by that much.

We were up early on Saturday, however, and it wasn’t because we found a 99-cent breakfast. Those deals went the way of free parking on the Strip, generously comped drinks in the sports books, and single-zero roulette at the former Monte Carlo on the Strip years ago.

Rather, we were intrigued by the pitching matchup in the Minnesota Twins-New York Yankees game. The Twins starter, James Odorizzi, boasted a better ERA than the Pinstripes’ J.A. Happ and the Twins are playing good baseball. Give us +110 on the Twinkies, and you’ve got yourself a bet. (The final line was closer to +104 on the Twins, according to Vegas Insider.)

As you know by now, the Twins rode Odorizzi and some timely hitting to a 7-3 victory.

Not a bad way to start a weekend in Las Vegas, but there was a little horse racing later in the day. We were out and about for the big hats at one of the locals joints, and the race and sports book was jammed. Ninety minutes before race time, we wended our way through a deep line for a win-place-show ticket on Tacitus. Then, watching the rain come down and the sloppy track, we scanned a mobile device and noted Maximum Security, a horse with a strong record of running in slop, was getting pounded with the odds plummeting to 4-1. We were tempted to make another bet, but we decided to sit tight and watch the drama play out.

As the world and nearby planets know by now, Maximum Security plowed through the competition and the muddy track for an apparent easy win. But 22 minutes later, race stewards disqualified him, and Country House — at a staggering 65-1 — was crowned winner. There was at least one immediate sharp peal of protest from a disgruntled gambler, and we can imagine how many tickets were torn up with utter disgust. In fact, our ticket “across” on Tacitus was instantly transformed from a loser into enough to buy a bargain-priced breakfast for two.

If that weren’t enough excitement for a Saturday, we watched the conclusion of Game 3 of Rockets vs. Warriors. It took overtime, but the Rockets came away with a 126-119 victory. And they covered -3.5.

Since we spend a fair amount of time dissing touts, it’s only fair to to report on Sunday morning. Three touts at that aforementioned website were lined up on the Milwaukee Brewers vs. the New York Mets in an early game after an 18-inning marathon the night before.

One wrote that considering the pitching match-up, the Brew Crew should be a way bigger favorite than -130. We like Milwaukee and have played them more than once this year. Though by the time we were wide awake enough to punch in some numbers on an app, the price had ballooned to -165.

You snooze, you lose, and you wait too late, you’re not up to date.

Regardless, the Brewers edged the Mets, 3-2.

But be careful of those prognostications from hired guns.

And good luck with the parlays.

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