Weekend Sports Gambler: Yes, There’s Exhibition Baseball – And You Can Bet On It
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By Dan Behringer, LVSportsBiz.com Sports Betting Writer
Psst … there are Major League Baseball teams already playing baseball on sunny fields in Florida and Arizona almost every day. And you can bet on them.
No, really.
Many, if not all, Las Vegas race and sports books are posting numbers daily on sides for the game. They are not, however, posting totals.
Is it a stretch to bet on games that are meaningless and won’t count when playoffs are determined? Well, is it a stretch to bet on preseason NFL games where highly paid starters are playing catch on the sidelines while second- and third-stringers are busting their tails and jockeying for roster spots? Is it a stretch to bet on NBA games where crazy plays and last-second fouls and free throws (just like college hoops) will often determine winners and losers?
This much is known: Some teams are winning most of their exhibition games. Some don’t seem to care. One way to track the winners and losers is to look at the Grapefruit and Cactus League standings. Another way is to review lineups for the games, which unlike regular season games are not confirmed. Some lineups will showcase recognizable names. Some, however, will elicit the reaction, “Who?”
Reviewing standings from the Grapefruit League, the Boston Red Sox are off to a 9-0 start and an astounding +47 run differential. Over in the Cactus League, the Kansas City Royals are 11-2 with a +42 run differential. At the other end, the Oakland (Waterfront/Las Vegas) A’s are 4-7, losers of six of their last eight and a run differential of -14.
Are those trends worth making a wager on? On Tuesday, the red-hot Red Sox were for some reason +149 vs. the Atlanta Braves, who were 4-5. The Red Sox won, 10-2.
An excellent post in late February at VSiN makes valid points on wading into exhibition baseball. Lineups tend to be weaker. Some pitchers are nowhere ready to face the best hitters in the game. Most games are effectively neutral sites with no frenzied home crowd to juice players’ adrenaline. Also, like preseason football, just because a team is supposed to be good in the regular season doesn’t mean they will be gang-busters in exhibition games. Therefore, there may be opportunities to fade marquee names such as the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros.
In fact, on Wednesday, the St. Louis Cardinals were +182 vs. the big-name Yankees. The Cardinals won, 4-0.
On Thursday the still-undefeated Red Sox were +175 vs. the Yankees. The Red Sox won again, 11-7.
But if the thought of betting exhibition baseball makes your head spin counter-clockwise, you can do what the public will do — wait for the March 30 opener when all 30 teams in action will be trying to win.
As the post from VSiN noted, “This isn’t for everyone.”
Elsewhere:
— Still on the road: The Vegas Golden Knights will next be at the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday. It’s the first of a back-to-back since they will travel to play the St. Louis Blues on Sunday.
The VGK are coming off a 4-3 overtime win vs. the Tampa Bay Lighting where they were an attractive +145.
After the game that featured a line brawl and 146 penalty minutes, coach Bruce Cassidy had this to say to reporters: “You’re going to get hit, and you’ve got to hit back.”
A very early line for Saturday’s game has Carolina at -192 and Foley’s Finest at +150. Puck drop is at 4 p.m.
— Back to the drawing board: Next up for the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels basketball team is the off-season. Coach Kevin Kruger’s charges rallied valiantly from a 16-point half-time deficit against No. 2 seeded Boise State on Thursday in the Mountain West Conference tournament and led briefly late in the game before the game went to overtime. Still, they ultimately lost, 87-76. The 14-3 scoring margin in overtime gave the Broncos, who were -5.5, a relatively easy cover.
“I think the second half was certainly the representation that the team deserves to be remembered by, just how hard they fought and how much they competed. Even being down there early just did everything they needed to do to give themselves a chance to win the game,” Kruger told the team’s official website after the game.
— Baskets and bubble talks: College hoops will get plenty of attention up to and including Selection Sunday. Expect the “bubble talk” to go on until the last possible minute. Latest futures odds at BetMGM have Houston at +600, Alabama and Kansas at +800, UCLA at +900, Purdue at +1100 and Arizona at +1200.
“When they throw the food out at night from a restaurant, the law of the alley says that the hungry dog’s going to get the bone,’’ UCLA coach Mick Cronin told USA TODAY Sports on Thursday. “That’s how you have to be as a team.’’
Woof.
