Monday Morning Gambler: The Yin and Yang of Betting Lines in the NBA Finals
By Dan Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
Watching and betting the NBA Finals?
Of course, you are. It’s great sport, high drama — and you can bet on it. You can return to the long grind of baseball season and start analyzing preseason football after the NBA crowns its new champion.
After the Boston Celtics’ 120-108 upset of the Golden State Warriors in Game 1, series odds shifted like tectonic earthquake plates in the San Andreas Fault. Once favored to win the series, Steph Curry & Co. were suddenly +150 underdogs to take the title and the Celtics were -170, according to Covers.com.
Of course, that was prior to Game 2 at the Chase Center before 18,064 animated fans and a primetime ABC audience on Sunday night. The Warriors were -4 to -5 for this game and the total nudged up slightly to 215.5 before closing around 213.5.
The computer projections at OddsShark.com forecast a close game: Golden State 107.4-Boston 105.5. “Golden State will win, Boston will cover and the total will go under,” the computer wizards said. You could almost see the vacuum tubes winking and blinking.
VegasInsider also had a prediction: Warriors 116, Celtics 105. They made the Warriors minus the points their “best bet.”
Of course, as you know by now, the final score of Game 2 was Golden State 107, Boston 88. And the series odds shifted again. Golden State is now -150 to -160 at many shops and Boston is +130 to +135.
Sharpen those yellow golf pencils: Game 3 is Wednesday night in Boston. The Celtics are -3.5 with the total at 212.5 in what looks like a series that might go the distance.
Elsewhere:
— Every Major League Baseball dog has its day: If you enjoyed the Pittsburgh Pirates sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers last week, cool. If you were cashing tickets, even better.
The Pirates, whose starting player payroll might roughly approximate the annual revenue from the sale of Dodger Dogs, drew first blood on Monday. Going off as +300 underdogs, they defeated Walker Buehler and the Boys in Blue, 6-5.
That was only the start. In the second game of the series, Pittsburgh was +275 vs. the Dodgers. They won the second game as well, 5-3. Obviously, the price on the reverse run line would have been even sweeter.
The price came down for the series finale. The Pirates were a mere +225 or so vs. the Dodgers and hammered them early and often on their way to an 8-4 win.
“They’re still a big league club,” Dodgers star Mookie Betts told the Los Angeles Times. “We just didn’t play well. And they did.”
A black chip invested on the Pirates in the first game and rolled over for the remaining two games would have paid $2,475 at the conclusion of Wednesday’s game.
So it goes in baseball. After both teams had a day off, the Dodgers beat the Mets, 6-1, and the Pirates lost to the Diamondbacks, 8-6.
— Aces win streak foiled: Bettors backing the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday in their rematch with the Connecticut Sun two days earlier got their comeuppance. The Aces, who were -4.5 for the game and cruising with a 9-1 won/loss record and an 8-2 ATS mark, lost outright to the Sun, 97-90.
That brought them to their game on Sunday at Michelob Ultra Arena vs. the team right behind them in the Western Conference, the Dallas Wings. The betting line opened at Aces -6.5 but moved to -8.5 and before closing at -8.
The final score: Las Vegas Aces 84 Dallas Wings 78 — another victory for the Aces, who were battling injuries, but a narrow cover for the Wings.
“I thought we dug in and found a way to win,” coach Becky Hammon told the Las Vegas Review-Journal after the game.
Is the line catching up with the Western Conference leaders, now 10-2 but 7-3 ATS?
— Laugher of the week: If you thought the total of 155 was a little low in another WNBA game on Sunday between the Connecticut Sun and the Seattle Storm, you were right. Both offenses appeared to be firing on all cylinders in the Sun’s 93-86 win. Officially, it was an over by 24 points.
It’s impolite to laugh while you’re standing in line to cash a ticket. But if you chuckle softly, no one will usually notice.
Dan Behringer is a longtime Las Vegan. Follow posts at doublegutshot.com. On Twitter, @DanBehringer221.
