Monday Morning Gambler: Are Las Vegas Aces A Good Bet? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes Not So Much

It’s tempting. They have a winning record. But if you’re a recreational or even aspiring semi-pro bettor, you have one question: How are they doing against the spread? (If you’re a professional, you already know. So never-mind.)

Last Tuesday, the Aces dumped the Phoenix Mercury, 86-74. Moreover, they covered -8, using a strong third quarter in which they outscored the Mercury 30-12, to help secure the cover.

On Thursday, the Aces hosted the Minnesota Lynx. Oddsmakers made the Aces an 11-point home favorite. It was close down the stretch, and the Aces opened up a 10-point lead. But the Lynx tossed in a couple of buckets when it counted. And the final from Michelob Ultra Area: Aces 93, Lynx 87. That is, a very nice cover for the Minnesota road team.

The win over Minnesota brought the Aces to Saturday and their rematch vs. the Mercury. The money was on the Aces. They opened at -7 and went all the way to -10.5 for their noon contest. According to Covers.com, 72 percent of the betting action early Sunday was on the home team. Made sense, right? They had won and covered vs. Phoenix earlier in the week. They had also defeated the Mercury, 106-88, and covered -4 in the opening game of the season way back on May 6.

In fact, it’s perfect sense. The Aces throttled the Mercury, 100-80. Once again, they rode a strong third-quarter performance, outscoring the visitors, 38-18. Guard Kelsey Plum led the way, scoring 15 of her 24 points in the third quarter. The 38 third-quarter points were a franchise record for the Aces.

“The second and third quarter, we really buckled down defensively,” coach Becky Hammon told reporters after the game. “I’ve been preaching the whole time, when we can play out of our defense, we become very dangerous.”

So, the Aces are 6-1. Notably, they are also 5-2 ATS. Of course, as financial advisers warn, past performance is not an indicator of future results.

As for that future, the Aces next host the Los Angeles Sparks at 7PM Monday  — tonight. The line is Aces -10 with the total at 170. LVSportsBiz.com will be at Mandalay Bay’s Ultra Michelob Arena to report on tonight’s Aces-Sparks game. 

Elsewhere:

— NBA (No Betting Allowed) action: The Golden State Warriors were a popular pick in Game 1 vs. the Dallas Mavericks. They were rested and laying 5 or 5.5 points vs. the Mavs with a total of around 214.

As is well-known by now, the Warriors rolled the Mavericks, 112-87. Also, bettors were able to employ the ME (Multiplier Effect). That is, the Warriors not only covered the game, they covered the first-quarter line and the first-half line. If you got a late start, the second-half line was Warriors -0.5. They covered that too, exploding in the second half and winning that, 58-42.

And if you think that sports gambling hasn’t gone mainstream, the TNT telecast teased some tantalizing numbers in the fourth quarter, noting the opening total of 214 and the live total of 204. With 199 points scored, both totals went under — but of course, it opened up the possibility of a middle.

That, of course, is only one example from the Conference Finals. The Warriors also won Game 2, 126-117, and covered -6. And in Game 3 on Sunday night, they defeated the Mavericks outright on the road, 109-100, as +2.5 point underdogs.

There were obviously thrills and chills in the Eastern Conference showdown too between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat.

The NBA Finals begin Thursday, June 2.

— Pandemonium at the PGA: Bettors on Mito Pereira had to be liking their man at about +20000 or 200-1. The 27-year-old Chilean led the PGA Championship at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma for 71 holes and all day Sunday. But by the time he arrived at the 18th tee, his lead had dwindled to one stroke. That vanished too when he drove his tee shot into an unassuming creek and double-bogeyed the hole.

“I just played it through, and actually had a one-shot lead on 18 and that was pretty good and sad to hit it in the water. I mean, I wish I could do it again,” he told reporters afterward.

That left Justin Thomas, an early +1400 contender, in a three-hole playoff with another longshot, Will Zalatoris, who opened at +3500. Thomas won the playoff, the $2.7 million first prize and the hearts of gamblers backing him at 14-1.

Las Vegas Collin Morikawa went off in the +1800 and +1900 betting range. He was also a tempting +140 to finish in the Top Ten at FanDuel. He finished tied for 55th place.

— Team rankings: There’s a new sheriff in town. At TeamRankings.com, the New York Yankees, with a 29-12 record and a 70.7 percent win percentage, are perched on top despite dropping both ends of a double-header to the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. Their average margin of victory is 1.6 runs — a notable stat for run-line bettors. The Dodgers, at 27-13, are right behind the Yankees with a 67.5 percent win percentage and an even more impressive 2.2 run margin of victory, easily the best in the majors. They also lost on Sunday, 4-3, to the Philadelphia Phillies.

At the bottom, the Cincinnati Reds have recovered from their 3-22 start but at 12-28 are still dead last with a win percentage of 30 percent. So far this season, they have been outscored by 1.6 runs per game. The Reds beat the Blue Jays on Sunday, 3-2.

— Laugher of the week: The St. Louis Cardinals bombed the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, 18-4. It was yet another example of the ME (Multiplier Effect) — the money line, run line and alternate run line (-2.5) all paid.

Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols had two home runs as the Cardinals led 7-0 after two innings and 12-0 after five. He eclipsed Hall of Famer Willie Mays for third place all-time in total bases at 6,071 in the rout. “To be mentioned in the same sentence is pretty special,” Pujols told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

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