On Sports Betting: Beating The NFL Appears Easy, But Is It Really?
By Dan Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
Well, that was easy.
It was TNF, which is of course Thursday Night Football, and the Green Bay Packers were -2.5 vs. the San Francisco 49er. That is, until the 49ers reported numerous injuries and a positive COVID-19 test for receiver Kendrick Bourne that sidelined three others considered as “high risk” contacts, and the line zoomed to -7.5. Eventually, it came back to Earth and settled at around -6.
But all the casual bettor has to do is follow the money and ride the Packers — even as high as -7.5. In case you were absorbed in the outcome of the presidential election and which way Nevada might go, the Packers steamrolled the undermanned 49ers, 34-17. And just like that, the casual bettor beats the NFL, one of the more difficult leagues to handicap consistently. (The only thing left to decide was the total, which crept over 48.5 on a last-seconds touchdown by the 49ers much to the surprise of over bettors and the dismay of under backers.)
Easy?
If it’s easy, why not do it again? So let’s take the Las Vegas Raiders at the Los Angeles (once upon a time San Diego) Chargers. The Chargers opened as -1.5 favorites vs. the Raiders. In some locales, it was as high as -3.5. But that was before the public jumped on the Raiders and pushed the line to “pick” on Saturday, then to as high as Raiders -2 before kickoff on Sunday. So let’s go with the public and play the Raiders vs. the Chargers, too. Surely, the “public” includes a representative mix of sharps and squares that have a feel of what’s going on, right?
The result? The Raiders beat the Chargers, 31-26, after a last-second Chargers touchdown was overruled.
The Raiders (5-3) are now -4.5 as they host the Denver Broncos (3-5) on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. The total is 51.
Let’s try one more: The casual bettor might have also noticed the Pittsburgh Steelers were getting enough action vs. the Dallas Cowboys that the line moved from -13.5 to -14.5. Since the Cowboys have serious issues in coaching management, offense, defense and possibly even on the cheerleading squad, let’s go ahead and lay the lumber with the Steelers. The Cowboys weren’t 0-8 ATS without good reason. In fact, they hadn’t scored a touchdown in their previous two games.
And that result? In fact, the Cowboys stuck around and made things interesting for a while before falling to the Steelers, 23-19.
Hey, it doesn’t work all the time.
Elsewhere:
— If you played UNLV at +14, which was available briefly at Circa, you cashed a winner in their game vs. the Fresno State Bulldogs. But if you waited until the last minute and played UNLV, your ticket most likely said Rebels +11.5. And that was a disappointment to UNLV bettors as the Bulldogs put away the Rebels, 40-27, on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium. Over players, however, enjoyed a relatively easy win with the total cruising past 58.
UNLV (0-3) next plays at San Jose State (3-0) on Saturday. Rebels are +16.5 with a total of 57.5.
— No. 1 Clemson at Notre Dame played out Saturday before a nationally televised audience. With Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence watching from the sidelines and wearing a mask because of COVID-19 issues, Clemson closed as a -5.5 point favorite. But in a seesaw game that went to double overtime and ran longer than the movie version of “War and Peace,” it was the Fighting Irish who knocked off the Tigers, 47-40, and ended Clemson’s regular season winning streak at 36. Over bettors never really had to sweat as the total blew through 51 in regulation.
— The first golfers in this year’s Masters golf tournament tee off on Thursday at Augusta National Golf Club. According to The Sporting News, long-ball striker Bryson Dechambeau is a +750 favorite. John Rahm and Rory McIlroy are both +1100. Tiger Woods is further down at +2700. Las Vegan Collin Morikawa is also +2700.
— The Seattle Seahawks, owners of an efficient offense and a sievelike defense, have easily gone over the total the last three games, the latest in a 44-34 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. They are at the Los Angeles Rams next Sunday with the total at 55.5.
— The NBA begins a 72-game schedule on Dec. 22 that includes games on Christmas Day games and finishes before the Summer Olympics in July.
