On Sports Betting: Las Vegas Aces Illustrate How Zigzag Theory Works
By Daniel Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
You were ready and chomping on the bit to bet the Las Vegas Aces in Game 2, right?
It was a classic example of the Zigzag Theory. The Aces were embarrassed by the Connecticut Sun in Game 1 of their WNBA Semifinals match, 87-62.
“Just a credit to our player’s tenacity, to their toughness,” Sun head coach Curt Miller told The Day after the game. “Vegas can really bully you and really play excellent basketball.”
But Game 2 on Tuesday was a classic situational spot for the Aces to rebound against the seventh-seed Sun. The line had even ticked down to from -6 in Game 1 to -5.5 for Game 2.
And rebound they did, beating the Sun, 83-75 and covering the number last Tuesday. They closed strong, winning the fourth quarter, 24-12.
“We were going to win this game. I didn’t want to be down 2-0,” Aces star A’ja Wilson told The Associated Press. “Got to find ways to make it happen. Tried my best to do it.” She scored 29 points.
As the news service reported, Aces coach Bill Laimbeer is 5-1 in his last six playoff series when losing the first game and 9-1 in the next playoff game after his team loses by double digits.
The Zigzag Theory is often used in the NBA, where a team can look terrible one day, return the next day and resemble a world beater. But it obviously extends, with judicious use, to the WNBA, too.
But what about Game 3? Turns out the Zigzag Theory still applied. The Sun beat the Aces, 77-68 in Game 3 on Thursday.
On the same day, we were intrigued to see if the Zigzag Theory would apply to the Los Angeles Lakers. The favored Lakers had lost to the Denver Nuggets, 114-106, in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Four touts at CBS SportsLine weighed in, three of them picking the Nuggets at +6 and the fourth favoring the total over.
Unsurprisingly, the Lakers came out strong in Game 4, winning and covering the first quarter, 37-30, and the first half, 55-50. But thing got interesting in the second half as the Nuggets rallied. The final score turned out to be a push at 114-108. The tout who liked over got his wish.
The Lakers went on to finish off the Nuggets in Game 5, 117-107, on Saturday and win the Western Conference Finals.
If the Zigzag Theory held, the Las Vegas Aces would rebound Sunday in a “must win” Game 4 in their best-of-five series. The line went from Aces -4.5 to Aces -2.5.
Rebound they did, beating the Sun, 84-75. The Aces used a dominating performance in the third quarter, in which they outscored the Sun, 28-16, en route to the win. Wilson had 18 points.
The deciding Game 5 is Tuesday.
Elsewhere:
— The line in the Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Patriots moved from Raiders +4.5 to Raiders +7 by kickoff. It didn’t matter. Cam Newton and the Patriots rolled to a 36-20 win over the Raiders on Sunday. As the AP reported, the Patriots have won the last six meetings vs. the Raiders. They also improved to 47-9 in regular-season games following a defeat. Raiders coach Jon Gruden is 0-3 against Belichick.
Raiders QB Derek Carr told the news service, “It’s one game. If we’re gonna blow up everything after the good things that we’ve done after one game, then this game ain’t for some of those people. We are just fine. We’re gonna be fine.”
— In the eight early NFL games on Sunday, seven went over the total. Ironically, the only game that didn’t was the overtime game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cincinnati Bengals. That game ended tied at 23. The total was 47.
— The Miami Heat zigzagged their way into the NBA Finals with a 125-113 win over the Boston Celtics. The Heat had lost Game 5 to the Celtics, 121-108, and were +3 ‘dogs and +135 on the money line Sunday for Game 6. They won the series 4-2 and meet the Lakers in the NBA Finals, which begin Wednesday. The Lakers are -450 and the Heat +375 to win the series, according to Vegas Insider.
— Backing Top 10 favorites in NCAA football proved disastrous for bettors in Week 4. Of the eight teams in action, two lost outright and four failed to cover. The two teams that covered, Florida and Auburn, did so by relatively narrow margins.
— The Dallas Stars won Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final in double OT, defeating the favored Lightning, 3-2. Stars goalie Anton Khudobin made 39 saves in the victory. The Lightning were -170, and the Stars paid +145. The price will be similar for Game 6 on Monday.
— Israel Adesanya, favored at -190, defeated Paulo Costa by KO/TKO in Round 2 of the middleweight championship in UFC 253 from Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., on Saturday. Under 2.5 rounds at +150 was also a winner.
