On Sports Betting: Las Vegas Aces Were Hot, Then Cold, Then Hot Again
By Daniel Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
The Las Vegas Aces were hot.
The WNBA team was 8-2 since the season’s restart and, notably for bettors, 7-3 against-the-spread.
They were laying 4.5 points vs. the Chicago Sky on Tuesday, and we were mildly curious whether or not they could keep up the winning ATS streak. Bettors cashing 70 percent of their tickets are generally happy with the results.
In fact, the Aces bolted to a 25-15 first-quarter lead and led 46-39 at halftime. But the second half was a different story, and the Sky won outright, 84-82.
So much for cashing tickets.
We were likewise curious whether or not the Aces would rebound from that loss in their game vs. the Connecticut Sun on Thursday.
This time the Aces were wearing home jerseys in the “bubble” at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, and were -7. They trailed the Sun, 27-25, at the end of the first quarter but controlled the rest of the game to win and cover, 99-78.
And just like that, Aces backers were back at the window, virtual or otherwise, cashing tickets.
Also on Thursday, we were curious whether or not the widely held NBA Zigzag Theory would prevail in one of the NBA playoff games. The theory, with some variations, holds that home favorites will rebound with a win after a loss or that road teams returning home will rebound after losing on the road. Of course the home-team effect is debatable since NBA games are also being playing in a “bubble” at Walt Disney World at Lake Buena Vista, Florida.
We zeroed in on the Milwaukee Bucks, who were upset by the Orlando Magic in Game 1 of their playoff series. The Magic had surprised the Bucks with a 122-110 victory in Game 1, but if the Zigzag Theory held, the Bucks would rebound with a win and a cover. The first-quarter line was -5, the halftime line was -9 and the line for the game was -13.
We tested the theory with a modest investment in the first-half line and watched as the Bucks easily covered the first quarter and the halftime line and then, narrowly, the game itself with a 111-96 win.
The Los Angeles Lakers, who fell to the Portland Trail Blazers and the blazing hot hand of Damian Lillard in Game 1, similarly rebounded and beat the Blazers in Game 2, 111-88, easily covering -6.5.
You can certainly cite other examples and corollaries of the Zigzag Theory. It’s comforting to know that in a world ravaged by the coronavirus, some truisms still apply.
As for the Las Vegas Aces, they concluded the week with an outright win over the Seattle Storm. The Aces were +5 and won the first three quarters before easing up in the fourth quarter en route to a 82-74 victory. They closed at +180 on the money line at Circa.
With a 9-4 record ATS, casual and serious bettors might see a trend in the Aces. Will oddsmakers adjust?
Elsewhere:
— The Vegas Golden Knights won Game 1 of the Western Division Finals on Sunday, defeating the Vancouver Canucks, 5-0. Goalie Robin Lehner made 26 saves for his first career playoff shutout.
Golden Knights bettors were paid in the -190 range. Puck line bettors did considerably better, around +140.
The total came in under 5.5.
— Former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar made his first appearance as a bantamweight and defeated heavily favored Pedro Munhoz on Saturday in UFC on ESPN 15.
Edgar won by split decision at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. He paid +220.
Next up at UFC Apex this Saturday, Anthony Smith will face Alexsandar Rakic in the light heavyweight main event. Rakic is -290 for the fight and Smith is +230, according to Covers.com.
— Bettors following streaks know the Detroit Tigers beat the Cleveland Indians, 7-4, on Sunday. The win was the Tigers’ second in the three games series after losing 20 straight games to Cleveland.
The Tigers paid +215.
Daniel Behringer is a long-time Las Vegan. Follow posts at doublegutshot.com. On Twitter, @DanBehringer221.
