On Sports Betting: Beating the Books Is Very, Very Tough — Or Is It?
By Daniel Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
Well, sure.
Many try. Most fail. Only a hardy few can beat the books over the long term, it’s widely assumed.
And yet there were the Baltimore Ravens, who have been steamrolling much of the competition since Week 1 in the NFL, at -3 for most of the week on Monday Night Football. The side eventually ticked to -3.5 in some locales against the Los Angeles Rams. But when it was over, the Ravens had whipped the struggling Rams, 42-6.
Really, how hard was that?
On the same day, the Dallas Stars were laying anywhere from -120 to -145 vs. the Vegas Golden Knights. The Stars had been on a winning streak in the NHL while the VGK had been scuffling. And when it was over, the Stars had defeated the Golden Knights, 4-2.
Hmmm. Maybe not that tough, huh?
The following evening the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels were hosting the Jackson State Tigers. The local hoops team has had issues in the early going. But this looked like an opportune time to jump on UNLV after first-year coach T. J. Otzelberger vowed to do whatever was necessary to right the ship.
In fact, the Runnin’ Rebels, who were laying 13.5, went on a late run and cruised past the Tigers, 80-57.
Otzelberger after the game: “I think if instead of having glimpses, if we can become that team for a consistent period of a time, we have a chance to be pretty good.”
See how easy this is?
By midweek, there was a popular consensus pick at the top of a popular betting website. It was the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, laying -4.5 or 5.5 at home vs. the Samford Bulldogs. It was a little dicey going down the stretch in The Rabbits Den in Brookings, South Dakota, but the Jackrabbits extended late and won, 86-77.
Easy as Thanksgiving Day pumpkin pie, right?
In fact, when Thanksgiving Day rolled around, there were the Buffalo Bills, owners of a highly respectable 8-3 record, against the Dallas Cowboys, who had been had been struggling and were 6-5. Seemed like Bills at +6.5 or even +7 if you snagged them a few days early were a reasonable bet. In fact, the Bills won outright, 26-15, and paid roughly +240 on the money line.
“Obviously we didn’t get the job done,” Cowboys head coach Garrett said at his postgame news conference. “They’re a good football team, and we didn’t do what we needed to do to win the game.”
Which didn’t stop Bills bettors from enjoying their winning wagers alongside their turkey, sweet potatoes and cranberry relish.
Later in the day, plenty of sharps and squares were riding the New Orleans Saints at -7 at the Atlanta Falcons. In fact, the price went to -120 for the late Thanksgiving Day game. It was not pretty in the waning minutes as the Falcons recovered two onside kicks to create anxious moments for Saints bettors. But the final score was Saints 26, Falcons 18.
Again on Friday, there was a consensus pick at that popular betting website, the SMU Mustangs in college hoops laying 16.5 vs. Abilene Christian, a team that UNLV had soundly defeated. The Wildcats made it interesting in the final seconds, but it was the Mustangs who prevailed and covered, 70-51.
See, anybody can do this, right?
By Saturday morning and the kickoff of college football, there were some seemingly obvious selections. Ohio State, -9, has owned Michigan in recent years. LSU was touted by many -17 vs. Texas A&M. And you could make a case for UNLV at +7 in the rivalry game with UNR as coach Tony Sanchez had requested to coach this final game after being fired.
As virtually everyone knows by now, Ohio State routed Michigan, 56-27. LSU beat Texas A&M, 50-7. And UNLV defeated UNR, 33-30.
Asked after the Ohio State-Michigan game if the difference between the teams was talent, preparation or coaching, a peeved Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh told a reporter, “I’ll answer your questions, but not your insults.”
And Sunday in the NFL?
Several ‘cappers liked the Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. the New York Giants. The Kansas City Chiefs -11 vs. the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders might have been seen as a mismatch. In fact, the Packers rolled over the G-Men, 31-13, and the Chiefs dismissed the Raiders, 40-9.
Is some of this taking advantage of 20-20 hindsight? Sure. But sometimes, too, there are plays that jump out and scream at you, almost asking to be bet for the house limit.
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What’s next?
— The Seattle Seahawks are -3 vs. the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. The total is 50.
— Also on Monday, the Vegas Golden Knights, -140, will put their two-game winning streak on the line at the New York Rangers. The total is 6.
— The Runnin’ Rebels, who lost 72-65 (but covered +12) in overtime to Cincinnati on Saturday, travel to play Fresno State on Wednesday.
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