On Sports Betting: Buyer Beware — Take Touts’ Picks with Grain of Salt

When it comes to handicapping sports, plenty of “experts” are paid to have opinions. They do — and they’re not afraid to share them.

A handicapper with a purported national following suggested the Atlanta Braves were the smart selection last Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds. The ‘capper laid out a few good reasons his selection made sense.

Unfortunately for him and those who took his advice to the betting window, the Reds won in extra innings, 6-4.

Another handicapper at Covers made his argument for the Tampa Bay Rays and their pitcher Charlie Morton last Monday on the run line at -145 vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays were the overwhelming favorite. But when the final pitch was recorded, it was the Blue Jays who won, 2-0.

The same day the host of an afternoon radio show from Las Vegas devoted to sports betting laid out his reasons why the Baltimore Orioles were worth +200 and change on the five inning-line of their game against the New York Yankees. His argument was not unrealistic, and he christened it an advertising-sponsored “play of the day.” But when five innings were in the books at Camden Yards, it was the Pinstripes who were on top, 4-1. (The Yankees went on to win the game, 9-6.)

There was another interesting betting opportunity on Monday. The Las Vegas Aviators, after being heavily favored in all their games against the Oklahoma City Dodgers, were only -150 for the final game of the series. That made the Dodgers +130 on the buyback. But the Aviators won again, 10-9, and the total “over” was also a winner.

On Wednesday, there was a series of mismatches in Major League baseball. The Houston Astros moved to as high as -400 vs. the Colorado Rockies, according to Vegas Insider. And the Yankees were -260 vs. the lowly Baltimore Orioles. But when the bats stopping swinging, the Astros had unloaded on the Rockies, 14-3, and the Bronx Bombers had continued their run-scoring assaults on the Orioles, 14-2. A parlay that involved the “over” on both games would have made for a decent payday.

However, by Thursday it was all about preseason football. There were 11 meaningless games on the schedule. Meaningless unless of course, you chose to plunk down your hard-earned dinero on a side or total. We were otherwise occupied, but we imagine just the sight of guys with helmets running, blocking, tackling and shaking their heads at calls by the referees would bring more than a few people into the race and sports books.

The preseason games were the lead story at Vegas Insider. Covers had detailed analysis and picks on several games. Over at CBS SportsLine, the headline was “Point spread specialist going big on Giants vs. Jets preseason opener.” The pick: Giants +2. In fact, the line went to Giants +2.5 in some locales. And In fact, the Giants won outright, easily dispatching the Jets, 31-22.

Moral: Professional handicappers do get it right. On occasion.

With a slew of preseason games already in the books by Friday, we turned out attention to the hometown product, the Las Vegas Aces vs. the Chicago Sky. While the Aces were 15-8 heading into the game and the Sky were 13-9, the tables were reversed ATS.