On Sports Betting: Sports Betting Line Moves Provide Great Entertainment
And move they did in the past week.
The opening line on the Las Vegas Aces of the WNBA vs. the Seattle Storm on Friday had the Storm as -3. Hours before tip-off, that line abruptly changed. Suddenly, it was the Aces who were favored. It was Aces -1.5 at one of the local shops, then the number rose to as high as -2.5 before settling around -1.5 or -2 before a 7 p.m. tip-off.
We didn’t care for the line move. We knew only that the Aces were on the last stop of a four-game road trip and had compiled a singularly undistinguished ATS record over the last 10 games. That translated into “Bet the Storm” for us. And we did exactly that, getting the Storm at +2. We had planned to take the Storm on the first-half line as well but didn’t.
As you know by now, the Storm raced out to a 43-35 first-half lead and fended off an Aces’ fourth-quarter rally to win outright, 69-66.
But that line move was a modest one compared with the shifting line on the WBA welterweight title fight between Keith Thurman and Manny Pacquiao, which moved like a widening crack in the San Andreas fault.
Back in June, we noted in a post here that the early line had the ever-popular Pacquiao at +115. But that number began to move and reverse sharply. By mid-week, Pacquiao was the clear favorite and had gone to as high as -150. Another move pushed the line to -160, and there were rumors of a late push to -170.
We had a sheet in front of us, and a race and sports book ticket writer suggested that a draw (which opened at 20-1, but moved to 10-1) might be the right way to bet the fight. We even tuned into a radio program on Friday in which a boxing analyst from Yahoo Sports offered various views on the fight. The host of the program wondered if there might be value on the buyback on Thurman, but then seemed to talk himself out of that. He concluded that the fight results might (again) end in some kind of controversy.
Of course when the fight was over, Pacquiao had won by split decision, rewarding late bettors who laid the price as well as those who were generally getting 7-5 that he would win by decision.
Other highlights from the week that was:
— Tuesday was not a particularly good day for the professional touts. Three of them at CBS Sports Line lined up with a unanimous recommendation on the Minnesota Twins behind pitcher Michael Pineda to beat the New York Mets. All the touts’ logic made perfect sense and apparently helped propel the price to -170. But apparently they didn’t convey the information to the fourth-place Mets. The Mets won, 3-2.
— Another tout at CBS Sports Line also suggested the Boston Red Sox were easily worth the -190 price vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and their unheralded starter, Jacob Waguespack on Tuesday. (We disagreed, having seen the Jays remain competitive with the Red Sox throughout the 2019 season.) But the Blue Jays apparently didn’t hear that they were decided underdogs either. The Jays won, 10-8.
— Bettors saw intriguing numbers with the Miami Marlins at the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday. With ace and All-Star Game starter Hyun-Jin Ryu going for the Dodgers, bettors saw -350 for the home team and an enticing +290 buyback for the Marlins. The five-inning line would have been similar, and the Marlins were leading, 1-0 at the end of five innings before the Dodgers rallied to win, 2-1.
— The Las Vegas Aviators played an unusual streak of low-scoring games. The Aviators were blanked, 2-0, by the Tacoma Rainiers on Tuesday, then won a rain-shorted affair on Wednesday, 3-0. (Games must go the full nine innings for a total to be decided.) By Thursday, oddsmakers at Station Casinos had dropped the total to 12.5 for the game. Tacoma won, 9-3.
— The Las Vegas Aces, with A’ja Wilson out because of an ankle injury, defeated the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday, 79-74. But laying 6 points, they again failed to cover.
— If you’ve been fading the Detroit Tigers in Major League baseball, you’ve been doing fine. The Tigers are 7-33 since June 1, according to a wire report. They looked like they were headed for 7-34 until they beat the Blue Jays on Sunday in extra innings, 4-3.
— Kevin Harvick held off Denny Hamlin to win the Foxwoods Casino 301 on Sunday in NASCAR at Loudon, New Hampshire. Harvick paid 6-1.
— Shane Lowry won the 2019 Open Championship in Northern Ireland. According to Vegas Insider, oddsmakers had him as high as a 65-1.
And what’s next?
— The Las Vegas Aviators will host division-leading El Paso on Tuesday. At 61-40, the Chihuahuas lead the Pacific Coast League’s Pacific Southern division by three games. Expect the Aviators to be short favorites.
— Also on Tuesday, the Las Vegas Aces will meet the Seattle Storm in a rematch on Tuesday at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. A very early line has both sides as “pick.”
