On Sports Betting: If It Looks Too Easy, That’s The NBA — Sometimes

By Daniel Behringer

LVSportsBiz.com

 

We glanced briefly at the lines for the first game of the Western Conference Finals last Tuesday with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Portland Trail Blazers. From experience, we have a sense that home favorites typically perform well ATS in Game 1 situations so we circled Golden State -3 in the first quarter and Golden State again -4.5 for the first-half.

The Warriors didn’t disappoint, staking a 27-23 first-quarter lead and building a 54-45 half-time advantage.

For the record, the Warriors also covered -7 for the game, too, using a 39-23 spurt in the fourth quarter to win, 116-94.

That same day, we also glanced at the Major League baseball rotation. Regular followers of these posts know we recently mentioned the surging Boston Red Sox, who have come to life of late, hammering opposing pitching and scoring runs in bunches.

We had predicted Boston ace Chris Sale would go off in the -300 range vs. the Colorado Rockies. We were close. The final number was -260, a bit steep for the serious investor.

However, a sharp bettor might have found an angle: Play Sale in the high -200s on the five-inning line, when the bullpen is typically not yet in play, but play the underdog Rockies for the game at +220. In this case, it would have worked out. Boston won the first five innings, 3-0, but the Rockies rallied late to win the game in extra innings, 5-4.

However, Tuesday was a disappointment for Las Vegas Aviators bettors laying in the -150 range. The local team took a 6-0 first-inning lead but ending up on the losing side of a 9-7 game vs. the Tacoma Rainiers.

The same day brought hockey fans out of their seats and onto social media to loudly protest a blown hand-pass call in the San Jose Sharks’ (yes, thoseguys) 5-4 win over the St. Louis Blues. But if you held a ticket on the Sharks at +120, you were able to cash despite another apparent bungle from the Stripes on Skates.

We were out and about on Wednesday, eager to see if the Milwaukee Bucks would follow the pattern of home favorites ATS in the Eastern Conference Finals game against the Toronto Raptors. We keenly remember the Bucks losing their first game in the semis to the Boston Celtics before storming back to win the series, 4-1.

The Bucks were -2.5 and -4 for the first-quarter and first half, respectively, and came out in unimpressive fashion. Again from experience, we highly discount “rested” teams, who frequently seem rusty. The Bucks lost both the first quarter and the first half before rallying in the second half to win, 108-100, and cover -6.5 or -7. The deficit was so steep that at one point, an in-game wager offered the Bucks to win at +175.

Golden State put on a similar display Thursday, letting the Trail Blazers race out to a first-quarter and first-half lead, before coming roaring back to win, 114-111. Since we were out and about again on Thursday, we listened as the final score resulted in a burst of cheers and high-fives from a group at one of the local books. Were they happy with the Blazers’ covering +7? Or did they have the Warriors on the money line? Maybe both?

We also had a modest sum invested in a three-team Major League baseball parlay on the same day. The Oakland A’s at -142 came in nicely with a 17-3 drubbing of the Detroit Tigers. The Milwaukee Brewers, at +105, downed the Philadelphia Phillies, 11-3. But the Chicago Cubs, at around +128, failed to deliver, losing 4-2 to the Cincinnati Reds and dooming our parlay ticket to an imminent date with the shredder. Reminder: Be aware of parlays.

We also saw the Las Vegas Aviators at -135 vs. the Salt Lake Bees with the total set at 12. But the game was rained out.

On Friday, the Bucks roared back to life in the opening minutes of Game 2, winning the first-quarter and half-time wagers vs. the Raptors. If you played the game at -6, that was a winner, too, and if you parlayed the side with the over of 219, you had a very good day indeed with the Bucks winning, 125-103.

Rain was still coming down in Salt Lake City on Friday, and another game scheduled between the Aviators and the Bees was washed out.

We did, however, have a small investment in the New York Yankees at -109. We liked that side vs. the Tampa Bay Rays simply because of the Pinstripes’ winning record despite a roster devoid of major stars because of injuries. And all we needed to turn that ticket into a winner was a Yankee rally in the bottom of the ninth to turn a 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 winner.

Like pretty much all bettors, we’ll take it.

And yes, we were familiar with the PGA being played on the Bethpage Black Course in Farmingdale, New York, eventually won by Brooks Koepka in a wire-to-wire performance. We also saw betting sheets offering wagers on the Mexican Primera Division and the 2019 Monster Energy All-State Race, not to mention Saturday’s heavyweight title fight.

It’s just we can’t follow everything. So like a lot of fans and bettors, we follow what we like.

But we do like horse racing and were intrigued by Saturday’s running of the Preakness Stakes.

The race drew another boisterous crowd to at least one of the local race and sports books with War of Will, with roughly 7-1 track odds, winning. If you had Bodexpress, the No. 9 horse, it ran a fairly spirited race but did it without the benefit of a jockey, which it dumped at the starting gate. Officially, it did not finish. A 50-cent trifecta on War of Will, Everfast and Owendale paid $2,349.90. (If you wondered, we made a small investment in Bourbon War, the No. 2 horse, which finished a dismal eighth.)

The other highlight from Saturday was the Golden State Warriors, a three-point underdog, rallying in the second half to defeat the Portland Trail Blazers, 110-99, in Game 3 of that series.

We concluded the weekend with a half-time bet Sunday on the Toronto Raptors at -3 vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. When the first 24 minutes concluded with the Raptors leading, 58-51, we were relatively happy. The Raptors eventually won the game, too, and covered -2.5, with a score of 118-112 but only after double overtime. And it took the second OT to eclipse the total of 221.5.

Also, the Aviators finally got in a rain-shortened, seven-inning game against the Bees, losing 6-4. Presuming the Aviators were still -135, the Bees were clearly the right side at +115.

What’s next?

— Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals goes later Monday with Golden State this time -3.5 vs. Portland. The total is 219.

— Game 6 of the NHL Conference Finals between the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks, with the Blues leading the series 3-2, goes Tuesday with St. Louis at -160. The total is 5.5.

— And make a note: On Friday,  the regular season of the WNBA tips off.