On Sports Betting: In College Hoops, High And Mighty Often Unmasked As Mere Mortals

By DANIEL BEHRINGER

LVSportsBiz.com

 

Sometime last Tuesday afternoon, two handicappers on a radio program devoted solely to sports betting concluded their program with their “play of the day.”

And from their perspective, it was a no-brainer: Gonzaga, -14.5 or so, would overwhelm St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference tournament title game. They rattled off a slew of statistics including the number of wins Gonzaga had posted by double digits.

We didn’t disagree. We had noted the Bulldogs’ pummeling of St. Marys, 94-46 in Spokane, Washington, on Feb. 9 and its second win March 2 against the Gaels, 66-55, in Moraga, California.

The handicappers’ foregone conclusion? Either play Gonzaga, at that time the No. 1-ranked team in the country, or don’t play the game.

Based upon that duality of choice and the ensuing outcome, the appropriate conclusion would have been to not play the game.

For as the world knows by now, unheralded St. Mary’s shocked arch-rival Gonzaga, 60-47, to end the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 and claim a berth in the NCAA tournament, in fact as a No. 11 seed.

And so it goes in college hoops, where the high and mighty are frequently rendered mere mortals.

As a contrarian argument, a Las Vegas newspaper flashed that sharp bettors were favoring St. Mary’s in the game. So Gonzaga as an overwhelming favorite wasn’t a foregone conclusion. The Gaels were generally around +15 before tip and +1000 on the money line.

Despite the loss, the Bulldogs hung onto what was presumed to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Miracles happen, of course. Teams catch fire, go on streaks, become seemingly unbeatable.

There was, however, no miracle for the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels. Their season ran out of gas on Thursday when San Diego State, -2, dropped the Rebels, 63-55. It was the end of the season for UNLV basketball team and, as it turned out, the end of coach Marvin Menzies’ career with UNLV as well. Menzies was fired Friday after three seasons as once again the UNLV athletic program reboots its men’s basketball program.

After defeating the Rebels, San Diego State continued its roll on Friday. The Aztecs, this time 11-point underdogs, defeated UNR, 65-56. The Aztecs were anywhere from +400 to +500 on the money line. They eventually lost to Utah State in the conference tournament title game, 64-57.

Far from the Mountain West Conference battles, the premier college basketball showdown on Friday was playing out in Charlotte, North Carolina, as Duke, -4.5, squared off with North Carolina.  The Tar Heels were attempting to defeat the Blue Devils for the third time this season and led by four points with less than three minutes to play. But when the last missed shot rimmed out, Duke had defeated North Carolina, 74-73.

That Duke-North Carolina game could easily be a preview of the National Championship Game on April 8.

That is, unless miracles happen. Or a team catches fire. Which happens every now and then in the tournament.

The Vegas Golden Knights were also in action Friday. And with the betting line pushed all the way to -150, the local team didn’t disappoint either its backers and bettors, edging the Dallas Stars, 2-1. After missing basketball bets with the frequency that a struggling middle school team misses free throws, we were happy to ride along and cash a small ticket.

The VGK started the new week with a 6-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday as -250 favorites. We were tempted to roll over our ticket on the Knights, but the price quickly dissuaded us.

But now it’s all about the NCAA tournament. And teams that might catch fire. Go on streaks. And becoming seemingly unbeatable.

It’s been known to happen.

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