On Sports Betting: Pro Touts Have Their Own Perspective on Games

By DANIEL BEHRINGER

LVSportsBiz.com 

 

Pity poor Pete Blackburn.

Blackburn,  CBS SportsLine lead NHL writer, made the Vegas Golden Knights his pick last Monday. Not only did he pick the VGK to defeat the Colorado Avalanche, he suggested bettors to play the puck line at +185 — a sweet payoff if the Knights could have defeated the Avalanche by more than one goal.

But Blackburn — and anyone who followed his advice — ended up disappointed. Not only did the Knights, who went off as -125 favorites, not cover -1.5 goals, they lost outright to the lowly Avalanche, 3-0.

And so it goes in the world of sports betting. Sometimes even your best research is subject to the whims of pucks caroming off posts, basketballs rimming out and footballs that doink off the uprights.

Another local team, the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels men’s basketball team, swung into action Tuesday, traveling to Laramie, Wyoming, to play the Wyoming Cowboys. UNLV was a consensus six-point favorite in this game and came away with a 66-56 win. It was its first ATS win in four games so you can see how UNLV backers have been faring.

By Wednesday, the Knights were back in action, this time laying -140 against the Boston Bruins. We didn’t see a prediction from Blackburn, but would have been tempted by the +120 buyback on the Bruins. The game ended tied at two even after overtime, but the Bruins prevailed in a shoot-out, 3-2.

That was five losses in six games for the ever-popular VGK, including a 5-2 loss to the Phoenix Coyotes in which Knights bettors were laying -250. It appears the only people showing a profit on the Knights are the gambling joints that put up fat, juicy numbers and take losing wagers to pay off the winners before pocketing the difference.

In addition to forgoing wagers on the Bruins, we also passed up playing the Duke Blue Devils laying 9.5 vs. North Carolina. While we see Duke winning it all in the NCAA Championship Game, laying nearly double-digits against a respectable Tar Heels team seemed a bit much. The game gained considerable attention after Duke star Zion Williamson blew out a Nike shoe in the first minute of the game and sustained a knee injury. After the injury, Duke trailed at half-time and was never a serious threat in an 88-72 loss.

We heard some chatter on radio Thursday on the merits of playing the Los Angeles Lakers +3 vs. the Houston Rockets. Ironically, analysts at CBS SportsLine were lined on the other side, nearly all favoring the Rockets. The Rockets were looking good for most of the game — until the Lakers outscored the Rockets in the fourth quarter, 28-16, to win outright, 111-106.

By Friday, the Vegas Golden Knights were back on home ice vs. the Winnipeg Jets and the truly rabid fans were lighting up social media with the #GoKnightsGo hashtag. And Blackburn? Still couldn’t find his pick on the SportsLine list.

The number on the Knights held steady at around -155 throughout the day before jumping to -165 and -170 just before the puck drop. While out and about, we noticed the reverse puck line at one of the local shops offering the Jets, the purported underdog, at +350. In retrospect, considering the Knights’ struggles, that would have been a reasonable investment and it would paid nicely as the Jets rolled over the Knights, 6-3.

The Runnin’ Rebels were back in action Saturday as very short underdogs vs. San Diego State. On the heels of wins over Air Force and San Diego State, the Rebels trailed most of the game. But the local team mounted a second-half comeback before falling to the Aztecs, 60-59. With a line of UNLV +1, the game ended on a push, but under 143 was a clear winner and never really in doubt.

Looking ahead to next week:

— On Wednesday the Runnin’ Rebels travel to play No. 6 ranked UNR. Considering how UNR has demolished lesser teams, it will be interesting to see what kind of a stand the Runnin’ Rebels put up in Reno. Expect a line in the -20 to -25 range.

— The Dallas Stars will visit the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday. On Monday, the Golden Knights announced they traded for star Ottawa Senators forward Mark Stone and books opened with the Knights as about a -190 favorite.  The VGK even sent a contingent of Drumbot drummers, cheerleaders, two mascots and a Vegas showgirl to greet Stone at the airport late Monday night.

But mostly we wonder if we’ll see handicapper Blackburn surface with a pick.

*