On Sports Betting: Maybe the Sharps Aren’t the Real Wiseguys After All

By DANIEL BEHRINGER

LVSportsBiz.com

 

So much for the sharps.

And squares who want to think like sharps.

The line moved dramatically on last Monday Night Football’s game between the Tennessee Titans at the Houston Texans, all the way from Tennessee +6.5 to Tennessee +3.5. It appears to be tidal wave of Titans money.

We didn’t disagree and would have been sorely tempted to play the Titans at +6.5. But that number was long gone by Monday, and once again, it’s a good thing our bankroll remained safe in our front pocket.

The Texans were never seriously threatened in defeating the Titans, 34-17. And with the total easily going over 42.5, the popular favorite/over parlay clicked like a perfect pickup line in a bar on Saturday night. So while the sharps may have moaned, it was the squares who were smiling and cashing tickets.

By Tuesday, we were taking a look at the line for the Vegas Golden Knights, which had moved from -120 on the Knights to -135. We were wondering if perhaps the Las Vegas home team was getting a little too much respect.

While we may have thought the line was inflated, the real wiseguys were the people standing in line to collect after the Knights’ offense erupted and the local team downed the Blackhawks, 8-3. On Thursday, the Knights extended their winning streak to five with a 4-3 victory over the Vancouver Canucks. In Thursday’s game, the line ballooned from -165 to -180 at one of the popular local joints.

There’s two ways to look at this way. One, you are probably paying an inflated line. But two, you’re riding a hot team so why not ride along?

College hoops fill a crowded race and sports book board. With an abundance of games every day, you need only need to do your due diligence, ideally homing in on a conference or two where homework pays off. In the Big 10 on Wednesday, we watched Michigan, which advanced to the NCAA title game last year, handily dispatch North Carolina. But both Ohio State and Michigan State, both favorites, lost outright.

There are ripe opportunities for the savvy investor everyday. Utah State drummed Northern Iowa with two solid halves of play on Wednesday and covered -8.5. And St. Mary’s finally saw a total go over but lost outright to UCIrvine, 80-75, as 7.5 point favorites.

We tuned into the Thursday Night Football matchup as the red-hot Saints from the Big Easy traveled to Jerry World for the game vs. the Dallas Cowboys. Most of the sentiment — and the money — was on Dallas. We didn’t disagree since the Saints had been on an impressive roll. But the Cowboys defense stood up to QB Drew Brees and the Saint’s high-octane offense, coming away with a 13-10 win. Ironically, one of our favorite plays — the first-half Dallas total under — would have been a winner.

Full slate of college football championship games on Saturday, but the headliner clearly was Georgia vs. Alabama. ‘Dawg fans had be elated when Georgia stormed out to two-touchdown lead, and we had to presume a few were clutching money line tickets that said +400. But Alabama coach Nick Saban appeared totally unruffled during the obligatory half-time interview. And the Tide’s stirring comeback with a backup quarterback was a remarkable win, but still an easy cover for Georgia at +11.5. And the total? The 35-28 score meant it was a push at most shops.

Just as an aside, while it was the biggest comeback in SEC Championship Game history, the television announcers, who should be communicating who it is making the plays, gave us memorable gems such as, “That would have been a great catch had he been able to hang on,” and “This has been some kind of football game.” We can’t figure out why announcers haven’t figured out this is television — we can see when a play is spectacular, but a little information about the play or who is involved in the play is the only reason for the announcers’ existence.

Over in the NHL on the same day, the Golden Knights’ five game winning streak came to an end when they lost as -115 favorites to Edmonton, 2-1.

And if you tried to play against the struggling Oakland Raiders in the NFL on Sunday, you were disappointed. Despite a profusion of fumbles, the Raiders covered +14 vs. the Kansas City and the total blew through the posted number of 53.5 despite losing, 40-33. While it may seem the Raiders are driving to secure the No. 1 draft pick, they have covered the last two of three, and the total has gone over in all three games.

Finally, regular readers of these posts know we don’t typically offer betting picks. But since we also mention doing your research, we can point out that in college basketball, Michigan State has failed to cover the first-half line in its last three games. All of those were road games or on a neutral site and Michigan State is at home Monday, Dec. 3, laying -5 in the first half against Iowa. (Full disclosure again: We are Michigan State fans and think we know when to play for and against this team.)

But after you’ve done your due diligence, the same rules apply: You pays your money and you takes your chances.

 

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