On Sports Betting: Of Duke and Dunks and Rivalry Games

By DANIEL BEHRINGER

LVSportsBiz.com

 

Late Monday afternoon, we were in line at one of the local shops with the Utah State-St. Mary’s basketball game circled. Our gut instinct said the underdog Aggies were a solid pick vs. the Gaels, and computer simulations showed the game easily going over the total of 132.

We waited patiently as a customer in front of us ticked off his selections, and the ticket writer swept up 25 portraits of typographer and inventor Benjamin Franklin.

We planned to invest somewhat less. We thought briefly of parlaying Utah State vs. St. Mary’s, but then decided on just playing the total over.

It turned out to be a questionable decision. Utah State, +4.5, had no problems putting away St. Mary’s, but the total was very much in doubt down the stretch. Finally, a late basket was tallied and the total landed at 133.

Whew.

While we were watching the basketball score on one screen, we turned another screen to Monday Night Football late in the game with the total already well over the posted number of 63.5 and only the side in doubt. In-game wagering eventually pushed the total over 100 in a game that some viewed as the future of the NFL. And if you like  the nonstop action of video games, we can see how that indeed might be the case. We didn’t have a dog in the hunt as the L.A. Rams eventually defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 54-51.

By Tuesday, we were back in line. This time we had the Duke-Auburn game circled mostly because we were impressed by how Duke had been dispatching teams in a tour de force of shooting and splashy dunks. We played the first half-line of -6.5 but barely noticed when the ticket rang up at -120. Apparently we weren’t the only ones who had this idea.

Midway through the first half, another bettor turned and said, “I got here three minutes too late to bet the game!”

“Which side?” we asked innocently.

She gave us a look of complete incredulity as if there were only one side to play. “Duke!”

We were quite impressed with ourselves as the Blue Devils raced off to a double-digit lead. We were less impressed, however, as Auburn battled back to put the first-half line very much in jeopardy. In fact, it came down to the last possession — yeah, imagine that — but Duke escaped with a first-half cover. Still, they but failed to cover -11 or -11.5 for the game.

We were back in line on Wednesday, too. Once again, we liked a college total, St. Mary’s-Mississippi State, over 134. Those offenses have to kick in eventually, right? And we liked Utah State, +3, to give Arizona State everything it had and perhaps win the game outright.

When we walked in the joint, there was uneasiness in the air as Gonzaga was beating Duke in the Maui tournament final. We sat and watched a little, and it seemed as if the Blue Devils had lost some of their swagger. With Duke down by double digits, an in-game line of Duke +7.5 was announced, and we were sorely tempted to rush to the window. We didn’t, however, but the Blue Devils made it close at the end before falling, 89-87, a score that easily blew through the total of 168.5.

And St. Mary’s-Mississippi State? The over never really had a chance with Bulldogs downing the Gaels, 61-57.

Utah State-Arizona State? The Aggies fell 87-82 (but that total cruised easily over 151.5).

Damn.

By Thursday, we were ready for turkey, pumpkin pie and our standby wager: the Dallas Cowboys first-half under the total. It had paid us before, and we were hopeful it would pay us again. We predicated that investment on the same reasoning we had used before — a fairly resolute Cowboys defense and offense not yet hitting on all eight cylinders. In fact, the first half total of 20.5 was a number that was amazingly familiar.

While tackling an oversized turkey drumstick, we watched as both teams scored touchdowns. And with the score tied at 7 and the Cowboys driving, our total was very much on the line. A touchdown and PAT makes the ticket a loser. But if the Redskins could hold them off or allow only a field goal, the ticket is alive.

Fortunately, the first half ended at 10-7 and we enjoyed the rest of our dinner, but it was closer than the score indicated. And the offenses surged to life in the second half with Dallas eventually beating (and covering -7) Washington, 31-23.

Our confidence renewed, we jumped on Iowa -9 vs. Nebraska with an early Friday morning start. Everything was playing out nicely, and the Hawkeyes were up by two scores and looking for more. When a first and goal stalled, they elected to try a fake field goal and go for the TD. We liked the play, but it fizzled. Nebraska took over and answered with two scores of its own, and Iowa needed a late field goal to win, 31-28.

Double damn.

The result left a slightly bitter taste in our mouth. If money won is twice as sweet as money earned, as Fast Eddie Felson says in “The Color of Money,” then money lost that could have bought lunch or a tank of gasoline is often doubly mourned.

 

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Undeterred, were back on Saturday for a full slate of college football. Rivalry games were the story of the day, and we watched a little of the much-hyped Michigan at Ohio State game. After the Buckeyes thumped the Wolverines, 62-39, we wondered what would be dancing through the dreams of Michigan’s defensive coordinator. Other games that stood out:

— Texas A&M’s 74-72 win over LSU in septuple overtime, but which was a cover for LSU at +3.

— Arizona State’s fourth-quarter comeback to upend Arizona, 41-40 (but a cover for Arizona which was getting 1.5)

— Unlikely UNLV’s historic comeback to upend UNR, 34-29. (That’s twice in recent memory of UNLV winning outright as a double-digit underdog.)

— No. 1-ranked Alabama (yawn) rolling over Auburn, 52-21, securing the cover by a field goal, an extra point and the hook with the total going over. Parlaying the Crimson Tide with the over has been a profitable play this season.

And yes, we know the NBA is underway and, yes, we know the Vegas Golden Knights have won three in a row, the last two of which were shutouts by scores, respectively, of 2-0 and 6-0. That’s impressive defense and also an astronomical amount of sugary Krispy Kreme doughnuts, but we wonder if we will again see some inflated lines for the home team.

As Sunday dawned, had a critical eye on the game of the day — Calgary vs. Ottawa for the Grey Cup.

(You had something else in mind?)

Both the Stampeders and the Redblacks played well to earn a berth in the Canadian Football League championship. We saw a line that said Stampeders -4 but that went to -5. Based on the Stampeders’ record ATS in championship games, we invested in the ‘dog at +5. But the Stampeders rolled, 27-16, and the number was never really close.

But back in American football, we did see one number we liked: New York Giants +6 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. The Giant have been playing better and at the same time, the Eagles appear to be in retrograde. But it was an early game, and we weren’t that interested in standing in line before 10 a.m. on Sunday morning. In case you, too, slept late, the Giants led most of the way, but the Eagles rallied to win, 25-22.

Other games of note in the NFL Sunday:

— The line on New England vs. the Jets moved from Patriots -9.5 all the way to -13 in some spots. But bettors still feasted as New England won 27-13.

— The Raiders scored first, but when the dust settled, they were on the losing end of a 34-17 score and failed to cover a generous line of +13.

— The line on the Cleveland Browns went from +3 to pick, but it was the Browns all the way in a 35-20 win.

And talk about line moves. In the Monday Night Football game for Nov. 26, the line has moved from as much as Houston -6.5 to Houston -3.5 in some spots. We liked Tennessee a little at +6.5 but didn’t play it. But we might yet play the Titans. If we get to the window in time.

 

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