On Betting: It’s Still a Game of Inches and Backdoor Covers

By DANIEL BEHRINGER

LVSportsBiz.com

 

We weren’t exactly riveted by last week’s edition of Monday Night Football.

Late in the game between the Giants and the Falcons, the Falcons led 20-6 and, laying anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 points, appeared to be on their way to a relatively easy cover.

In fact, we had tuned to “Chappaquiddick”on Netflix, in which Jason Clarke as Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy, is attempting to rescue his political fortunes in the 1960s.

Then the Giants score a touchdown but fail on the 2-point conversion. The Falcons tack on a field goal with two minutes left, leaving the score at 23-12.

But Giants QB Eli Manning, only a slightly less tragic figure than Sen. Kennedy in the ’60s, mounts a Super Bowl-worthy drive. And with seconds remaining, the Giants score again, narrowing the lead to 23-18.

Suddenly, there is edge-of-your-seat drama. Laying 4.5, the number late at many Las Vegas books, Falcons bettors still have a cover but have to sweat what will likely be a 2-point conversion attempt. The Giants indeed go for 2 — and convert, dashing any hopes for those who played the Falcons and eliciting raucous cheers from those who had the chutzpah to bet the Giants.

But that was the end of Week 7 in the NFL. And the week saw plenty of other drama.

By Tuesday, we had a slight lean on the Red Sox to win the World Series vs. the Dodgers. But we saw -160 on the Red Sox series price at one of the square local joints and turned our nose up at that price. We were even briefly tempted to play Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers at a decent underdog price in Game One, but the question always is: Which Kershaw will show up? The dominant pitcher during the regular season? Or the one who sometimes struggles during the post-season? We passed.

Of course, by now, we know the Red Sox stormed to an 8-4 win in Game Win with the total going over 7.5 in the fifth inning. Nice game for “over” betters and those who had the Red Sox on the run line.

So we turned our attention to Week 9 of college football. Though not before watching the Vancouver Canucks eke out a 3-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights. The opening line on the VGK went all the way from -180 to -280 and savvy ‘dog players who jumped on Vancouver at +240 had great value and a sweet ticket to cash.

We were eager to dive into the college-football fray and after some cursory research and a look at some whose opinions we sometimes respect, we went with Ohio -10.5 vs. Ball State. And finally, we got a much-needed laugher as the Bobcats easily trounced the Cardinals, 52-14.

We rolled our gambling largesse over onto a three-team teaser with Purdue, Northern Illinois and UNLV. We weren’t laughing, however, when Purdue gave up a last-minute touchdown, and UNLV couldn’t even keep it close against lowly San Jose State. (If you’re looking for a trend on UNLV, it’s fairly easy to spot. It’s “over.”)

Late Saturday, we wanted to play the Philadelphia Eagles vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars if for no other reason than it’s fun to wake up Sunday morning with an NFL game already under way. We were a little concerned by the move from -3 to -3.5, having been burned by the “hook” several times this year in both college and NFL games. And ultimately, we didn’t make the play. (The line eventually went to Eagles -4, but they covered 24-18.)

Slightly deflated, we jumped on the Chicago Bears bandwagon. We weren’t the only ones. The line went from -7 to -8 to -9, back briefly to -8.5, then -9 in many spots. There was a chance late of a backdoor cover, but the last Jets’ drive ended with a whimper. Bears 24, Jets 10.

We were briefly tempted to play “over” 54.5 in the Sunday Night Game between the Vikings and the Saints, but we decided to pocket our NFL profits and call it a day. (That game ended with a 30-20 score.)

We did, however, put down a small wager on the Boston Red Sox at +126 to close out the World Series in Game Five. Our logic was 1) the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw was not completely reliable; and 2) even if he threw six or seven solid innings, the hot Red Sox bats would have a crack at Dodger relievers; and 3) Red Sox were rolling.

We’ve thoroughly enjoyed the World Series, particularly the Game Three marathon that went 18 innings and ended about the time early rising Red Sox fans were waking up on the East Coast. The New York Times reported that that game was not only nearly an hour longer than any other in postseason history, but it was 15 minutes longer than the entire 1939 World Series — a Yankees sweep over Cincinnati that lasted a mere 7 hours 5 minutes.

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ADVERTISEMENTEven through the first four games, there has been stellar pitching, outbursts of hitting power and the usual defensive gems. Baseball has plenty of critics who consider it a dead game, and we understand there’s another generation of sports fans who would rather bang on the glass during a hockey game rather than sit back and appreciate the subtle beauty of a sacrifice bunt or a double steal.

(If you’ve truly been out to lunch, the Red Sox won Game Five by a 5-1 score, locking up a World Series Championship.)

We also noticed the VGK rallied from a 2-0 deficit to defeat the Ottawa Senators 4-3 on Sunday evening.

 

While we’ve been focusing on football, baseball and some hockey, we are fully aware the NBA is underway, too. We may get to that when the World Series is over.

Finally, if you’re going make a bet, think back to that Giants-Falcons game on Monday Night Football and heed the advice of The Miracles, a legendary Motown group. One of their many hits included the lyric, “You better shop around.”

Still applies when it comes to point spreads.

 

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