Monday Morning Gambler: Frenzied Crowds Turn Out For NFL Playoffs
By Dan Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
Restless crowds milling around the race and sports books. People dressed in team jerseys and wearing caps. Betting sheets strewn on counters and chairs, and people huddled over their iPhones and other mobile devices for the latest betting information.
What’s the allure in late January?
It’s not college basketball. Neither is it the NHL nor the UFC.
The wild-eyed crowds were there for the NFL. The pump-up-the-volume cheers and plaintive moans were for the eight teams left in the Divisional Playoffs. Most of the people in the books had an opinion. Or a betting interest. Or both. At least that was our theory. So we asked a ticket writer at one of the local shops.
“A lot of football,” he said. “Yes sir.”
Of course, many bettors were surprised. After the Wild Card round, in which favorites won and covered five of six games, the Divisional round returned with the NFL’s strong suit: Unpredictably. Or parity, if you prefer. After both No. 1 seeds, the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers, lost outright on Saturday, the Los Angeles Rams KO’d Captain America aka Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs survived a back-and-forth barnburner that went to overtime later Sunday and became the only favorite to win and cover over the weekend.
More crowds next Sunday for the Conference Championships? Bet on it. The Chiefs are generally -7 vs. the Cincinnati Bengals with the total at 54. The Rams are -3.5 vs. the San Francisco 49ers with the total at 46.5.
On the futures market to win Super Bowl XXVI, the Chiefs are around +120, the Rams +200, the 49ers +450 and the Bengals +800.
Elsewhere:
— Knights finally pay off: While the NFL was inarguably the big draw over the weekend, the Vegas Golden Knights have been keeping bettors in relative suspense. Huge favorites as high as -330 vs. the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday, the Knights had to rally for a 4-3 win that sent the total over 6. If you laid the heavy lumber on the Knights and had another ticket on puck line on the Canadiens, you win the prize. The win stopped a streak in which the boys in the gold-toned helmets had lost five of six and had been favored in five games of those games.
“I thought we put in the right amount of work to deserve two points tonight,” Vegas coach Peter DeBoer said.
The VGK open a four-game road trip on Monday at the Washington Capitals. The Golden Knights are +105 with the total at 6.
— Night and day: The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde college basketball team also known as the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels returned to action Saturday again the kind of team it performs well against: The lower rated San Jose Spartans, now No. 285 and one notch below Hartford in the KenPom rankings.
San Jose State was +13 vs. UNLV for the game. You may remember UNLV had defeated San Jose State, 81-56, on Jan. 17 but followed that up with a road loss at Air Force on Thursday as 5.5-point favorites.
They beat San Jose State 70-62 on Saturday but failed to cover. That left their record at 11-8 but a singularly unimpressive 6-12 ATS.
As stories in the Las Vegas Review-Journal and the Las Vegas Sun have pointed out, the Runnin’ Rebels fare well against weaker competition but perform poorly against better-rated teams.
They travel to play San Diego State, now No. 36 in Kenpom, later Monday. The Aztecs faced the Rebels on New Year’s Day at the Thomas & Mack Center and covered -3 in a 62-55 win.
UNLV’s current KenPom rating would rival the summertime temperature in Death Valley — No. 116, one notch above Utah Valley in the WAC.
UNLV is +10.5 for Monday’s game with the total at 126. According to Covers.com, 59 percent of the action is on the Runnin’ Rebels.
— Heavyweight UFC action: Francis Ngannou prevailed by unanimous decision in the heavyweight championship of UFC 270 on Saturday at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The 250-pounder’s win over Ciryl Gane paid bettors in the +125 range. Over 2.5 rounds at -105 was also a winner. Favorites outperformed underdogs, 7-4, according to Vegas Insider.
— Laugher of the week: Forget the mindless chatter about bad beats. The Houston Cougars, -11 vs. East Carolina in college basketball on Saturday, rolled over the Pirates, 79-36. The Cougars won both halves comfortably to cover by 24 points.
