Monday Morning Gambler: Raiders Fumble on Betting Analysts’ Predictions
By Dan Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
Raiders at -2.5 or -3 or even -3.5 on the road vs. the New York Giants?
Was that a smart bet after the latest turmoil involving Henry Ruggs?
In fact, at Circa, South Point and Treasure Island, the line even moved to Raiders -3.5 at one point.
Would you have put down your cash to make that play? Or maybe play the total over or under at 46.5?
A “betting expert” at Vegas Insider boldly predicted a score: Raiders 27, Giants 21. That is, he forecast a cover for the silver-and-black and the over — a fairly common parlay.
ADVERTISEMENT: Click for info
ADVERTISEMENT
“The Raiders might give up a big play or two … but the Giants don’t have the weapons to pull off the upset on Sunday. (Derek) Carr will be able to make it work despite the loss of Ruggs, and the Raiders will stay atop the AFC West,” the expert wrote.
Another analyst at Covers.com agreed, picking the Raiders at -2.5.
“With injuries concerns still surrounding the Giants and the advantage that the Raiders have had with a bye week to prepare, we’re confident that the Raiders cover the spread here. Grab those 2.5 points early,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, the projection at OddsShark had it Raiders 25.2, Giants 23. “Las Vegas will win, the Giants will cover, and the total will go over,” the website suggested.
A little later on Sunday afternoon, after three turnovers by Carr, the final score was in: Giants 23, Raiders 16.
So if you followed any of those analysts’ opinions, well, that’s the way the football bounces. If you doubted them and played contrarian, however, the Giants were about +150 on the money line.
Carr after the game: “I thought mentally we were ready. Myself, I was ready to go. I was excited just to play football. I don’t think emotions or anything like that were into it. The second interception had nothing to do with emotion. That was a decision I made. It didn’t work out.”
Next up for the Raiders: A key AFC West division matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday Night Football. The current line is Chiefs -2.5 with the total at 52.
Elsewhere:
— Lighting the victory cigar: UNLV finally recorded a win under coach Marcus Arroyo, and Rebels bettors cashed tickets, too. UNLV defeated New Mexico on Saturday, 31-17, behind running back Charles Williams’ 74 rushing yards and two TDs. The Lobos opened as -1 favorites. The line briefly moved to -2 before closing around -1.5.
“That says a lot about our team and our group and our program. Where we’re headed. We got more,” Arroyo said after the game. The win broke a 14-game losing streak.
The Rebels next host Hawaii on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium. The current line is Hawaii -3 with the total at 57.
(Parenthetically, New Mexico drops to 1-8 ATS. They will be at Fresno State on Saturday. The current line is Fresno State -24.5 with the total at 51.)
— Knights conclude road trip: The Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday rewarded bettors with a 5-2 win over the Montreal Canadians. The Golden Knights were -105, and the total went over 5.5. On Sunday in the final game of their road trip, the boys with the golden helmets were -110 vs. the Detroit Red Wings, and the total was again 5.5. The Red Wings won, 5-2.
“I thought we pushed back hard in the second and third,” coach Peter DeBoer said, “but it was just one of those nights. It’s always tough to win on the road, and it is even tougher with this many key injuries.”
The Knights, who were in last place in the Pacific Division at one point, are now 6-6. They host the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday and are -140 for the game with the total at 5.5. Times change: In the season opener against the Kraken, the Golden Knights were about -240.
— “Chalk” pays: The odds on Kamaru Usman rose to -300 prior to his welterweight fight vs. Colby Covington at UFC 268 on Saturday night. Usman won the championship match by unanimous decision and over 3.5 rounds at -130 was also a winner. Favorites went 13-3, according to Vegas Insider.
On Saturday, Max Holloway will meet Yair Rodríguez in a featherweight bout at UFC Vegas 42. Holloway is -550 while Rodríguez is +400 for the fight.
— Follow the money: If you followed the money on Utah on Friday night in college football action, you were on the right side. The line went from Utah -6 to -10 and -11 and even -11.5 in some spots before kickoff. No problem, the Utes jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead and easily dispatched the Stanford Cardinal, 52-7.
— Laugher of the week: Wisconsin at -13 was a popular play on Saturday in college football. It even warranted a “free pick” at Covers.com. Deservedly so. The Badgers rolled the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 52-7. Officially, it was a cover by 36 points.
