Monday Morning Gambler: Once Again, There Were Plenty Of Opinions On The Raiders
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By Dan Behringer for LVSportsBiz.com
Recreational and professional bettors — and those in between — had plenty of opinions before the Las Vegas Raiders-Denver Broncos game on Sunday.
Who would really show up for the Raiders? How would the distraction of coach Jon Gruden suddenly resigning affect the game? And the biggest question of all: Would the Raiders cover +5 on the road in 69-degree weather at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium? Or even win the game?
Hours before the game kicked off, we looked at a couple of analysts’ predictions. Noted the analysts at CBS SportsLine: “One of the model’s strongest Week 6 NFL picks is that the Broncos (-3.5 at the time) cover the spread against the Raiders in well over 50 percent of simulations. Jon Gruden is no longer in charge of the Raiders, and special teams coach Rich Bisaccia was elevated to take his place.
“Bisaccia has never been a head coach … and takes on the steep challenge of moving his team forward after this incident. Denver, meanwhile, has a favorable chance against a Raiders team that has allowed all but one opposing team to pass for at least 330 yards this season.”
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Another analyst at Vegas Insider said this: “There is more conviction in both the trends and stats for the point total to go under (43.5) rather than Denver covering a spread that surpasses a FG. To each their own, but the under has more smart odds to play on.”
The analyst predicted a score: Denver 21, Las Vegas 17.
Still one other observer, a Las Vegas local who was hanging out near the Red Rock Resort race and sports book, expressed a more commonly heard opinion on the Raiders in the days before the game: “They’re done.”
In the end, a lot of people were surprised. The given-up-for-dead Silver and Black jumped out to a 17-7 first half lead en route to a 34-24 victory over the Broncos. Quarterback Derek Carr Carr passed for 341 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
It was a relatively easy outright win and paid not only bettors who played the +5 but money line bettors who earned around +180 or +190. And the total, which closed at around 45, went over fairly easily.
Bisaccia, on the end of criticism from the CBS SportsLine analyst, after the game: “Certainly it’s emotional for everybody. So I think they did a good job, as a bunch of grown men of handling their emotions throughout the week. … We’ll see what goes on from here.”
In fairness to CBS SportsLine, it had one other pick: the Baltimore Ravens, -3, to cover against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Ravens did just that, winning 34-6.
As for the Raiders, they next host the Philadelphia Eagles next Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. The line is currently Raiders -3 with the total at 48.5.
Elsewhere:
— Close but no victory cigar: The UNLV Rebels had another chance for that still elusive win under coach Marcus Arroyo on Saturday vs. Utah State. They led in the fourth quarter before the Aggies mounted a last-minute drive at Allegiant Stadium to win, 28-24. UNLV’s Charles Williams rushed for 221 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries in the loss.
Arroyo after the game: “We had the lead the entire game and did a lot of good stuff, but we’ve got to get healthy again and we’ve got another one Thursday night. Quick turnaround, but we’ve got to go forward.”
Still, bettors have something to smile about: UNLV is now 4-1-1 against the spread this year. Under 64 was also a winner for betters playing the total in Saturday’s game.
Next up for UNLV: A home date late Thursday at Allegiant Stadium with the San Jose State Spartans. San Jose State is currently -5 with the total at 46.5.
— Walking wounded: After a narrow 4-3 win over the expansion Seattle Kraken as a huge favorite on Tuesday, the Golden Knights lost to the Los Angeles Kings, 6-2, two days later. The Kings were about +140 for the game.
In Thursday’s game, they also lost captain Mark Stone, who left the game in the second period and did not return. He is considered day-to-day with a lower-body injury. In addition, Max Pacioretty broke a foot in the loss and is considered week-to-week.
“This is an opportunity for whoever we stick in here to take the ball and roll with it,” coach Peter DeBoer told reporters Saturday.
Next up for the Golden Knights is the St. Louis Blues on Wednesday. No line yet on that game.
— The Tide rolls on: After being upset by Texas A&M on Oct. 9, the Alabama Crimson Tide resumed its winning (and covering) ways on Saturday. Laying 17.5 at Mississippi State, the Tide rolled to a 49-3 victory. They also led at halftime, 21-6, and covered the first-half line that rose to as high as -12.5.
— Basket case: The NBA regular season opens on Tuesday with two marquee games. One has the Los Angeles Lakers -3.5, down from -5, vs. the Golden State Warriors. It should be an interesting test for the Lakers, who were winless in the preseason. The total is 228. In the other game, the Milwaukee Bucks are now a pick vs. the Brooklyn Nets. That total is 237.5.
— Laugher of the week: Playing the Cincinnati Bearcats-Central Florida Knights game over the total of 56 turned out to be a relatively easy win in college football on Saturday. The Bearscats hung 56 themselves. The Knights chipped in 21 points as well to give over bettors a relatively easy win. Cincinnati, now ranked No. 2, also covered -21.5 in the 56-21 victory.
