On Betting: As Baseball Drones On, Some Reliable Indicators Click For Bettors

Is there anything better on a Monday than a Major League Baseball double-header between two long-time division foes?

Other than having box seats, a hot dog and an ice-cold drink and being there to take in the sharply mowed grass and the sweep of the sky, a seat in a Las Vegas race and sports book with a betting ticket in your pocket is a close second.

And so it was on Monday when the Baltimore Orioles invaded the Bronx to play the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers were heavy favorites, of course, at about -360 but a parlay on “over” 10.5 in the first game of a double-header was a reasonable investment. It took until the seventh inning for the total to go over, but the Yankees routed the Orioles, 8-5, to absolutely no one’s surprise.

And the second game of the double-header? Yes, the Yankees won that, too, and yes the total again went “over” 11.5 runs as the Yankees won, 11-8.

The Yankees and the “over” parlay seemed as reliable as hot weather in August so we’re wondered if that trend would continue on Tuesday. We saw 10 as the “over” early, then saw the number bump up to 10.5. No shock there. It took a meaningless run from the O’s in the top of the ninth, but the parlay clicked one more time with an 8-3 Yankees victory.

We were equally intrigued on the same day how the Las Vegas Aces would fare against the Atlanta Dream. Oddsmakers hung a big number, -13, on the Aces, and were skeptical of a cover even against a team that brought a 1-10 record to the Mandalay Bay Events Center. So were weren’t surprised when the Aces won but by a score of 94-90. The total, however, easily blew through the posted number of 153.

When Wednesday arrived, it was the final game of the four-game series between the Orioles and the Yankees. Would you have taken the Yankees-“over” parlay to the window one more time? The Bronx Bombers were -260 and the total was 10.5. After a five-run first inning, the combination looked good. Then a series of goose eggs appeared on the scoreboard. But the Orioles scored three times, and the Yankees added two runs of their own. The final: Yankees 6, Orioles 5.

Having watched a little baseball, both Major League and the Triple A variety, we thought we were on a couple of trends. On Friday, we put down out first BATW parlay. That is, we bet against arguably three of the worst teams — the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins. Because they were all heavy underdogs, we tweaked the BATW (bet against the worst) parlay by tossing in a couple of run-line wagers. It all seemed to click until the upstart Tigers beat the Rays, 2-0.

We were also convinced a parlay on the Las Vegas Aviators with “over” 14.5 would result in a winning ticket. We were pleased when the visiting Albuquerque Isotopes knotted the score at 7 in the late inning. But we were decidedly displeased when it the visitors scored the last two runs to win, 9-7.

With that outcome, you could say we went from BATW to worse.

(Though the BATW parlay did come in on Saturday and again on Sunday with the Orioles, Tigers and Marlins all losing on consecutive days to superior teams.)

There was, of course, a full line-up of sports to tantalize on Saturday — UFC 241 from Anaheim, California, and Canadian Football League in addition to Major League and Triple A baseball. But it was preseason football that captured our betting interest. We were convinced that the plain vanilla preseason offenses planned by the Los Angeles Rams and the Dallas Cowboys, plus the leisurely, sun-drenched setting of the Aloha Bowl in Honolulu, Hawaii, would bring the total under an early posted figured of 43. But the number, like the stock market, dropped steadily throughout the week. We heard it announced as 39 on Friday at a Station property, but it was 37 by the time we got to the window.

Of course, he and she who hesitates is lost and the 6-point swing could have doomed us. But a lethargic second half gave a result we largely predicted: Cowboys 14, Rams 10. Though for mere predictability, we could have returned to that Yankees and the “over.” The Bronx Bombers won again Saturday, beating the Cleveland Indians, 6-5, with the total going over 10.

However, for pure point-swing drama, it was hard to top Sunday’s preseason game featuring the New Orleans Saints at the San Diego Chargers. The Saints were +1 early, but the line move steadily in their direction. A professional tout liked them at -1, but the money pushed the line to -2 and finally -2.5. The “hook” doomed Saints bettors who jumped on the train late as they rallied in the second half to win, 19-17.

Saturday was a big day in the UFC with Stipe Miocic at +120 defeating Daniel Cormier by KO/TKO in Round 4. Cormier was -150. Favorites and ‘dogs split the 12 fights, according to Vegas Insider. And out at the Las Vegas Ballpark, the Aviators avenged their day earlier defeat to the Isotopes with a 6-5 win. The home team was -180 and the total went off at 14 at Station properties.

The weekend concluded on Sunday with an high-scoring match between with Aces and the Chicago Sky. With A’ja Wilson back in the lineup after sustaining an ankle sprain, the Aces rolled to a 100-85 win, easily covering -2 and cruising past the total of 168.5.

What’s next?

— The Aviators open a three-game homestead against the Reno Aces on Monday. Expect the Aviators to be in the -160 or -170 range with a total around 13.

— The Las Vegas Aces host the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday. The Mercury will bring a 4-9 record to the Mandalay Bay Events Center.

— The first major college football games go this Saturday with Arizona (-11) at Hawaii and Florida (-7) at Miami. More games follow Aug. 29, then the floodgates open, and it will be wall-to-wall football through December.

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