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    Categories: Gambling

On Sports Betting: Buyer Beware — Take Touts’ Picks with Grain of Salt

By Daniel Behringer

LVSportsBiz.com

 

Psst … Would you take a betting tip from this person?

When it comes to handicapping sports, plenty of “experts” are paid to have opinions. They do — and they’re not afraid to share them.

A handicapper with a purported national following suggested the Atlanta Braves were the smart selection last Sunday against the Cincinnati Reds. The ‘capper laid out a few good reasons his selection made sense.

Unfortunately for him and those who took his advice to the betting window, the Reds won in extra innings, 6-4.

Another handicapper at Covers made his argument for the Tampa Bay Rays and their pitcher Charlie Morton last Monday on the run line at -145 vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays were the overwhelming favorite. But when the final pitch was recorded, it was the Blue Jays who won, 2-0.

The same day the host of an afternoon radio show from Las Vegas devoted to sports betting laid out his reasons why the Baltimore Orioles were worth +200 and change on the five inning-line of their game against the New York Yankees. His argument was not unrealistic, and he christened it an advertising-sponsored “play of the day.” But when five innings were in the books at Camden Yards, it was the Pinstripes who were on top, 4-1. (The Yankees went on to win the game, 9-6.)

There was another interesting betting opportunity on Monday. The Las Vegas Aviators, after being heavily favored in all their games against the Oklahoma City Dodgers, were only -150 for the final game of the series. That made the Dodgers +130 on the buyback. But the Aviators won again, 10-9, and the total “over” was also a winner.

On Wednesday, there was a series of mismatches in Major League baseball. The Houston Astros moved to as high as -400 vs. the Colorado Rockies, according to Vegas Insider. And the Yankees were -260 vs. the lowly Baltimore Orioles. But when the bats stopping swinging, the Astros had unloaded on the Rockies, 14-3, and the Bronx Bombers had continued their run-scoring assaults on the Orioles, 14-2. A parlay that involved the “over” on both games would have made for a decent payday.

However, by Thursday it was all about preseason football. There were 11 meaningless games on the schedule. Meaningless unless of course, you chose to plunk down your hard-earned dinero on a side or total. We were otherwise occupied, but we imagine just the sight of guys with helmets running, blocking, tackling and shaking their heads at calls by the referees would bring more than a few people into the race and sports books.

The preseason games were the lead story at Vegas Insider. Covers had detailed analysis and picks on several games. Over at CBS SportsLine, the headline was “Point spread specialist going big on Giants vs. Jets preseason opener.” The pick: Giants +2. In fact, the line went to Giants +2.5 in some locales. And In fact, the Giants won outright, easily dispatching the Jets, 31-22.

Moral: Professional handicappers do get it right. On occasion.

With a slew of preseason games already in the books by Friday, we turned out attention to the hometown product, the Las Vegas Aces vs. the Chicago Sky. While the Aces were 15-8 heading into the game and the Sky were 13-9, the tables were reversed ATS.

Stats from Covers showed the Aces at 9-14 ATS while the Sky were 14-7-1 vs. the line. That seemed to indicate the Sky was the right betting side. And in fact, the Sky used strong performances in the first and fourth quarters to win outright 87-84.
But the Aces are still drawing betting money. They opened at 6-1 to win the 2019 Women’s Championship but are now 13-5 at Station properties to claim the title.
There was more preseason football on Friday and Saturday and the Oakland Raiders, soon to become the Las Vegas Raiders, handily covered -4.5 in their meaningless game against the Los Angeles Rams, winning 14-3.
But for pure scoring excitement, it was hard to top the Houston Astros 23-2 rout of  the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday. The Astros scored early and often and hit six home runs in the beat-down on the Orioles. A shot by Carlos Correa was described by a blogger for SB Nation as “traveling 474 feet … over both bullpens and into the bullpen picnic area. Never seen that before in my life.”
Another way to look at it, the combined runs in that game was more the combined points in the Raiders-Rams game and nearly as many points scored in the Dallas Cowboys-San Francisco 49ers preseason game, won by the 49ers, 17-9.
Though perhaps the Sunday sequel to that game by the Astros and Orioles held even more drama. With Justin Verlander on the mound, the Astros went off as high as -460, prompting veteran oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough to tweet that the Astros may have been the highest road favorite ever. The drama came in the bottom of the ninth when the Orioles scored three times to beat the Astros, 8-7, and give bettors who played the Birds as high as +385 a sweet Sunday payday.
There was more of everything by Sunday from Major League baseball to Minor League baseball to WNBA action with the Las Vegas at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. There was even men’s and women’s tennis finals in the Coupe Rogers Finals.
But for rip-roarin’, engine-snortin’, fender-bumpin’ race action, it was hard to top the Consumers Energy 400 in the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series at the Michigan International Speedway on Sunday in Brooklyn, Michigan. Joey Logano was a popular pick at +550. But Kevin Harvick, also at +550, finished more than a second ahead of Denny Hamlin, who was +1200, to claim the trophy. Kyle Busch, at +450, finished sixth, according to The Associated Press.
So what’s next?
— The Las Vegas Aviators, currently in the midst of a four-game series at the Omaha Storm Chasers, play again Monday. They will likely be short road favorites after losing Sunday, 4-3.
— The Las Vegas Aces, who won, 89-81, and covered -3 on Sunday vs. the Connecticut Sun, will be favorites again Tuesday when they host the Atlanta Dream. The Dream own a 1-10 road record.
— UFC 241 goes on Saturday from Anaheim, California, with 11 matches on the card.
— The countdown continues to the first college football games on Aug. 24.
Daniel Behringer is a long-time Las Vegan. Follow posts at doublegutshot.com. On Twitter, @DanBehringer221.

 

Alan Snel: Alan Snel brings decades of sports-business reporting experience to LVSportsBiz.com. Snel covered the business side of sports for the South Florida (Fort Lauderdale) Sun-Sentinel, the Tampa Tribune and Las Vegas Review-Journal. As a city hall beat reporter, Snel also covered stadium deals in Denver and Seattle. In 2000, Snel launched a sport-business website for FoxSports.com called FoxSportsBiz.com. After reporting sports-business for the RJ, Snel wrote hard-hitting stories on the Raiders stadium for the Desert Companion magazine in Las Vegas and The Nevada Independent. Snel is also one of the top bicycle advocates in the country.
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