On Sports Betting: Even the Best of All Possible Bets Sometimes Go Awry

By Daniel Behringer

LVSportsBiz.com

 

It was just another day ending in “y” in the race and sports books.

We were out and about Tuesday and had done some cursory research Major League baseball. We noticed one of the popular websites had a couple of well-reasoned selections:

— Under 4.5 runs in the five-inning line of the New York Mets vs. the Atlanta Braves.

— The Houston Astros behind their ace Justin Verlander on the run line vs. the Cincinnati Reds.

— We added our own third game to the list — the Tampa Bay Rays getting a good price vs. the New York Yankees.

(Another handicapper on afternoon radio ticked off a list of reasons under 9.5 runs was a solid trend in the Rays-Yankees game.)

We were distracted by other events and didn’t make any of the bets. Which turned out to be a very good thing.

The Mets jumped all over the Braves and had run up 6 runs in the first five innings en route to a 10-2 win. The Reds, who were +160, scored three times off Verlander in the first inning and notched a 4-3 win. And the Yankees, who went off as -171 favorites, quietly put away the Rays, 6-3. (The total did come in under.)

So it goes in baseball where even well-reasoned stats and logical trends fall prey to the swing of a Louisville Slugger or the errant bounce of a five-ounce Rawlings baseball.

By Thursday, we were out and about again. Soccer was one of the big stories of the day, and the U.S. defeated Sweden, 2-0, in Women’s World Cup play. Bettors who held tickets on the U.S. women’s team at -270 were undoubtedly as jubilant as fans. While favorites were often priced aggressively, they have been doing well. As of Monday, favorites-underdogs-draws in the Women’s World Cup were 32-3-5 straight up, according to Vegas Insider. Overs-under were 14-20-6, the website also noted.

But there was baseball to be played locally on Thursday as well. The Las Vegas Aviators hosted the Sacramento River Cats at the Las Vegas Ballpark and typically go off as -135 or -140 favorites in these spots with the total between 12 and 13.

If you were holding a ticket on the Aviators, you might have been tempted to tear it up with the Aviators down 10-1 after 4 1/2 innings. But of course you never do that in any game — particularly in Triple A baseball. In fact, the Aviators rallied, then scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to reward bettors, over players and a reported crowd of 10,089 fans.

And if you’re hungry for football, there was Week 2 of the Canadian Football League on Thursday as well. The Ottawa Redblacks were -5.5 vs. the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The total moved from 44 to 48.5 — and apparently for good reason. The Redblacks won, 44-41. More CFL games were slated for Friday and Saturday.

But there was one other score from Thursday worth noting. The Las Vegas Aces, laying 3.5 at home vs. the Washington Mystics, were blown out, 95-72.

But when the weekend arrived, there was the typical Las Vegas buffet of sports betting opportunities — Major League baseball, CFL, the NASCAR Monster Energy Series, and tennis and soccer to boot.

We were happy to tune into a nationally televised Major League baseball game on Saturday and watch the Yankees, at -165, roll to their eighth straight win, this time over the Houston Astros. The total went over 10 in the 7-5 victory.

Meanwhile out at the Las Vegas Ballpark, the Aviators at -180 or so, dropped a 4-3 decision to the River Cats before a reported crowd of 10,143 on a pleasant 84-degree evening. With a 10 mph wind in from right field, the total came in under 12.5 rather easily.

Also on Saturday, the on-again, off-again Aces were on-again. Laying 14.5 points to the Dallas Wings, the Aces used dominating performances in the second and third quarters to roll to an 86-68 win and secure the cover. Statistical footnote: Whether it’s coaching, mental preparation or conditioning, the Aces aren’t finishing strong. Only once in nine games have they won the fourth quarter.

So what’s next?

— There will be plenty of attention focused early Monday on USA vs. Spain in the Women’s World Cup, either likely underway or final by the time you read this. The USA was -330 and Spain was +750 to advance. Draw was +300.

— The finals of the college World Series also get underway Monday. In Game 1, Vanderbilt is -220, and Michigan is +180.

— Wimbledon gets underway July 1. Serena Williams is currently +500 in women’s singles. Novak Djokovic is +120 in men’s singles.

— If you’ve got the NFL on you mind, the Hall of Fame game pits Denver and Atlanta. It’s slated for Aug. 1.