By Daniel Behringer
LVSportsBiz.com
If you were holding a ticket on the Golden State Warriors last Monday, you had to feel confident about your chances at halftime.
The Warriors were up 23 points over the Los Angeles Clippers at that point and appeared to be on cruise control. With 7:31 in the third quarter, the Warriors extended the lead to 31 points.
Imagine your shock if you tuned away from the game, say to watch newly famous Las Vegas sports bettor James Holtzhauer terrify the competition on “Jeopardy!” After all, you were confident your ticket with the Warriors at -13.5 was as good as gold, maybe even platinum, right?
As it turned out, the Clippers went on an extended 72-37 run to take control of the game and win, 135-131. It was the biggest comeback in NBA playoff history.
And the ticket that looked so rock-solid?
Worthless. Not worth the few pennies the paper on which it was printed cost.
And so it goes in the world of sports betting. Winners turn into losers with sickening speed. Losers turn into winners. All in the bounce of a basketball off a rim, a shot off a baseball bat or a carom off a hockey goal post.
You likely have heard the oft-used expression, “And that’s why they call it gambling.”
It never goes out of style in Las Vegas. Or anywhere else where sports betting is now legal.
If you think comeback wins or major upsets are rare, consider the Columbus Blue Jackets of the NHL. Against the No. 1 seed Tampa Bay Lightning, the Blue Jackets were +310 to win the series. According to The Lines website, DraftKings Sportsbook offered odds of 40-1 for Columbus to sweep Tampa Bay. They had no takers. Not one single bet on the series sweep.
Columbus had never won an NHL playoffs series. But they proceed to do just that, sweeping the Lightning in four games.
And if you backed Tampa Bay at around -400 or so and lost, well, remember, “And that’s why they call it gambling.”
However, back at T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday, the Vegas Golden Knights did indeed take care of business, defeating the San Jose Sharks, 5-0. If you laid -170, you paid the price, but you cashed a ticket. If you played the puck line at +160, congratulations and you can buy lunch next time we see you in the book.
By Thursday, there were at least two interesting games worth a look. In the NBA, the Golden State Warriors had a chance to avenge their monumental collapse to the Clippers. The game was debated among some professional handicappers, some arguing the Clippers’ case, others siding with the Warriors. But the Warriors, laying -9.5 at Los Angeles, prevailed 132-105, winning all four quarters and settling the argument for at least the day.
On the same day, the Vegas Golden Knights had a chance to close out the series again the Sharks at San Jose. The home team was -115 and the Knights -105. As regular readers of these posts are keenly aware, we hold a series ticket on the VGK at -115 and would have been happy with a VGK win. But the Sharks defeated the Golden Knights, 5-2, sending the game back to Las Vegas for Game 6.
We happened to be at a local watering hole for the game, where a decidedly partisan crowd cheered noisily for the VGK. Both Vegas goals elicited a raucous burst of applause. The only thing better would have been more VGK goals and free drinks with each score. Apparently, that free drinks promotion has not yet caught on.
On Friday, we caught a little bit of a conversation on afternoon AM radio. Two veteran handicappers dissected numerous trends on Game 3 of the Indiana Pacer-Boston Celtics series and concluded that under 205 was the savvy play. And in fact they were right on the mark as the Celtics downed the Pacers 104-96.
We took a stab at an NBA game ourselves on Saturday, letting lunch money ride on the Milwaukee Bucks -9 vs. the struggling Pistons. We added the first-half line, at -4, as well, and will be able to afford lunch for a couple of days at least as the Bucks rolled to a 119-103 win, also covering the first-half with a 67-54 score.
By Sunday, VGK fans were buzzing and lighting up social media over the local team’s chance to close out the Sharks at home. We happened to be out and about and a bystander informed us he had sold his game ticket for four figures, happy to take the profit and go somewhere else to watch the game.
The line rocketed all the way to -200. But it was the Sharks who prevailed, in double overtime, and it was Sharks bettors who cashed winning tickets at around +175. Presuming most of the tickets were written on the VGK, the books paid a few winners and pocketed the difference.
But now, of course, we go to a Game 7 on Tuesday in San Jose. Expect the Sharks to again be around -115 and the Golden Knights roughly -105. It should be a closely contested game with plenty of noise and exuberance in the local books and other places where the game is being shown in Las Vegas.
And as for those series bets on the VGK at -115? They are clearly up in the air as of this post.
And that’s why they call it gambling.
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