Are you ready for some basketball?
By last Tuesday, we definitely were. While we didn’t think the Nevada at UNLV game held much intrigue, we believed it did offer some betting opportunities. We thought No. 8-ranked Nevada at -9.5 held value against a UNLV team still struggling to find its way.
We weren’t the only ones.
The number moved to -10 late Tuesday, then -11 just before game time. The Wolfpack delivered a dominating performance, seemingly out-shooting, out-rebounding and out-everthinging the Runnin’ Rebels in an 87-70 win. We watched a good portion of the game, which aired on ESPN2, and thought a few of the backboard-bobbing dunks from the Wolfpack were a serious threat to separate the official Spalding backboard from its ancestral moorings.
We also listened in to a radio program the afternoon before the game in which a professional handicapper and tout said in earnest he thought UNLV at +5 or so on the first-half line was a credible bet. We never gave that any serious consideration, and we hope the handicapper didn’t invest an overly large amount of his bankroll on that wager.
(In fairness to the handicapper, he also liked a college hoops game not involving ranked teams or any other notable reason to watch, Missouri State at Valparaiso, going under the total of 130 and ticked off some highly logical reasons for his conclusion. By the time we got to the window, the number was 128 but we made a small investment in the under in that game. It went to overtime — usually the death knell for under players — before Missouri State eventually put away Valpo, 55-54.)
There was more basketball throughout the week, and our interest was mildly intrigued piqued with the “marquee matchup” on Thursday as the Golden State Warriors returned home to host the Philadelphia 76ers. We picked up on a little of the radio chatter that afternoon in which one of the participants cited a series of statistics that favored the ‘Sixers at +9. We didn’t disagree. Curry, Thompson & Co. seem to overwhelm mediocre teams but at the same time appear occasionally vulnerable to respectable teams such as the ‘Sixers.
In case you missed the TNT telecast, Philadelphia rode a strong second-half performance to 113-104 win over the Warriors. The public-inflated total of 240 was never threatened.
But despite college hoops, the NBA and the return of the Vegas Golden Knights to the ice on Friday, there was really one game one everyone’s mind. Some 75,000 people would have tickets to the Super Bowl in Atlanta, but more than 300,000 people were headed to Las Vegas to watch the game, bet on the game, comb through the pages of props on the game, order buckets of various drinks during the game, party during and after the game, and maybe even do some other gambling. (It happens, you know.)
And everybody had an opinion. Even a Google newsfeed picked up on the CBS SportsLine prediction from R.J. White, the self-styled “Super Stat Geek.” Why that qualifies as news boggles the mind, but there it was nonetheless. (His “on fire” prediction was New England -2.5.)
But before the kickoff of Super Bowl LIII, there was a couple of college basketball games Saturday that caught our eye. The first was UNLV again, this time on the road at Utah State. We figured that was a difficult spot for the Runnin’ Rebels, on the road after a lopsided loss to an instate rival. And we circled Utah State at -12, a number that jumped to -12.5 before we could put down a small investment. The Aggies prevailed, 82-65, in a win a local newspaper called a “blowout” although UNLV actually won the second half. The second game was an SEC game, and we ended up on the wrong side of the Auburn-Alabama contest.
But Sunday was all about the Super Bowl. We watched a long but orderly queue at one of the local joints snake its way to the betting window. And we watched an SRO crowd in the book, eyes riveted on every play (there might be a prop riding on this play, you know) as Belichick, Brady & Co. methodically downed the Rams, 13-3. The casino floor was eerily quiet during the game except for sporadic cheers from the book or groups clustered near large-sized TVs showing the game. We had a small bet on Rams +105 for the second half, a ticket that went almost immediately into the shredder.
Vegas Insider reported books generally eked out small profits in the single-digit range, but paid off some long shot props (no touchdown in the first half at 100-1 and no touchdown by the Rams at 50-1).
A few things to anticipate in the week ahead:
— The Vegas Golden Knights, losers of four straight, next play Tuesday at the Tampa Bay Lightning. Could be the VGK go off as underdogs here.
— And the UNLV Rebels men’s basketball team is on the road Wednesday vs. Boise State and likely will be underdogs again.
— The only remaining suspense to the Super Bowl is whether or not the handle topped the $156.8 million wagered in 2018. And if that were a prop bet, we’d play it over the total.
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