In Sports Betting, You Better Know Who To Trust
By DANIEL BEHRINGER
LVSportsBiz.com
Who do you trust?
That’s really what it comes down to in a lot of sports betting. There’s a metric ton and more of information available for virtually every game. There’s websites that run Monte Carlo simulations and offer predicted outcomes. There’s touts who manage to eke out a living telling you what you should think.
We caught a glimpse of what can sometimes be conflicting information in an NBA game last Monday. Although it was Martin Luther King Jr. Day, there was a full schedule of televised games in the NBA. We even briefly looked up and caught a little of one game, New Orleans Pelicans at the Memphis Grizzlies, which was played before a startling number of empty seats.
The Portland Trail Blazers at the Utah Jazz didn’t warrant a TNT telecast that, but we glanced at some information for the game. We noticed a prominent sports betting website affiliated with a major TV network rated the Jazz at -5 an “A”-rated play for the day. Another tout, which plies its craft on social media, differed and like the Trail Blazers +5. We had no interest otherwise in the game but we were modestly intrigued by who could claim bragging rights for being on the winning side after the game.
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The Jazz bolted to a lead in the second quarter and easily covered the first-half, 51-44. But in the second half, the Trail Blazers rallied and won outright, 109-104.
So who do you trust?
On Tuesday, we circled a game and went to the window with a modest amount of cash in hand ready to play Minnesota +12.5 vs. Michigan in college hoops. The Wolverines had suffered their first loss of the year over the weekend, and we rarely see teams bounce back quickly from that kind of defeat. We were tempted to glance at some projections for the game, but they wouldn’t have incorporated the emotional factor of losing for the first time. Minnesota led at half-time, 31-28, and we mentally kicked ourselves for not putting some cash on the first-half line as well. And while Michigan won, 59-57, it was a relatively easy cover for the Golden Gophers.
When it comes down to who do you trust, you better be able to trust your own reasoning and your gut instincts.
By Wednesday, there was the usual social media hype that precedes a Vegas Golden Knights game. But a few hours after the puck drop, it was the Nashville Predators who came up winners, downing the VGK, 2-1, with Predators bettors cashing sweet tickets at +130. That was four losses in six games for the local team, and it will be intriguing to see if and how the sports books adjust prices for the next few games. The Knights next play at the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday, Feb. 1.
There was a Las Vegas team that made some noise, however, as the UNLV Rebels downed New Mexico, 74-58, as 6-point favorites on Tuesday. At that point, the Rebels had actually won five of their last six but failed to cover in two of those wins and were blown out by Air Force, 106-88, as 4.5-point favorites on Jan. 16.
There was some news that raised a few eyebrows at midweek when CBS say its announcers for Super Bowl LIII would not be mentioning the betting angle during the pregame coverage, which seems to start sometime late Thursday, or the actual game Sunday. Many observers were quick to point out the irony since CBS has its name on a website solely devoted to picks, point spreads and predictions.
So who do you trust, the say-nothing announcers or the gambling-oriented website?
(In case you wondered, CBS SportsLine “predicts” Patriots 29, Rams 28, which would be a cover for the Rams at +2.5 and a score that lands right on the current total of 57.)
By Saturday, we had three games circled: Boston Celtics +3.5 vs. the Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers -5 and San Diego State -5.5 vs. UNLV. You probably know by now how we fared. The last few seconds of the Celtics-Warriors game went the Warriors’ way in a 115-111 victory, the Pacers (minus Victor Oladipo) lost outright to the hapless Memphis Grizzlies, 108-103, and the Aztecs spanked the Rebels, 94-77. We should point out one of the touts liked the total in the national network televised Celtics-Warriors game at under 229.5, a number the public drove all the way to 232.
We caught a little bit of a pro football game on Sunday involving players who won’t be playing in Super Bowl LIII that didn’t involve any serious tackling and was played in steady rain. That of course was the Pro Bowl and the AFC also rained on the NFC 26-7, with the total easily coming in under 55.
By now, however, many will be focusing on Super Bowl LIII. We picked up a list of props from one of the local joints, a stapled document that resembles a tax return in length and detail. Though in between, UNLV hosts No. 7 Nevada on Tuesday, Jan. 29.
You’ll be hearing a lot of opinions from baristas, dog walkers, the self-promotional touts, sous chefs, newspaper columnists, Uber drivers, Zamboni repair people and a few others about the Big Game on Sunday, so you may wish to ask yourself one question.
Who do you trust?
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