On Sports Betting: History Repeats and Repeats and Repeats with UNLV Basketball

By DANIEL BEHRINGER

LVSportsBiz.com

 

Over the years, we’ve noticed one thing about UNLV Rebels basketball.

Just when the team shows flashes of momentum and you think maybe they’ve turned the corner toward respectability, they disappoint.

So it was over a recent weekend when UNLV rolled into the Diamond Head Classic. Fresh off a 92-90 upset win of BYU, the Rebels went off as a “pick” vs. Hawaii. And they handily dispatched the Rainbows, 73-59.

At that point they were 4-0 ATS in their last four games.

After the win, they advanced to play Indiana State. Oddsmakers make them a 3.5-point favorite, which based on their recent performance seemed both accurate and deserving.

Now a favorite, UNLV trailed at halftime. And lost the game outright, 84-79.

The loss meant the Rebels would play Bucknell on Christmas Day for third place in the tournament. This time they were 3-point favorites.

Maybe the Rebels were lonesome for Las Vegas. Maybe they were out of synch playing on a major holiday. Maybe they were thinking about a turkey dinner. Maybe they had had their turkey dinner and were dulled by the trypthophan in the turkey.

Whatever the reason, the Rebels never really appeared to seriously contest the game. They were trailing 47-30 at halftime en route to a woeful 97-72 defeat.

From knocking on the door of respectability to two straight losses as a favorite.

And over time, we’ve seen a similar pattern. Again and again.

Of course, there was a time when UNLV basketball was the game in town. They were branded as the Runnin’ Rebels at that point, known for an uptempo offense and an idiosyncratic coach.

But as handicappers on talk radio noted recently, that was decades ago. Times have changed. Professional hockey has landed in Las Vegas and drawing throngs of rabid crowds. The Oakland Raiders will kick off their 2020 NFL season in Las Vegas.

That’s not all. A newly rebranded Triple A baseball team opens in a new $150 million Summerlin stadium in early 2019. A WNBA franchise is already here, and the NBA probably isn’t far behind.

So as handicappers on talk radio wondered: How relevant are the Rebels today? Bluntly, does anybody care?

With the arrival of professional sports in Las Vegas, it seems obvious that to snag a share of the sports spotlight, the Rebels will need to be much better than average. And for much of recent memory, they have been decidedly mediocre.

But anyway, back to sports betting.

We had a difficult decision to make last Thursday. Invest in a finely researched, co-relative parlay (Vanderbilt -4.5/over 57) in the Texas Outdoors Bowl?

Or go with our gut instinct, which was an NBA play on the Houston Rockets +2.5 at home vs. the Boston Celtics?

Actually, there was a third choice: Lay roughly 3-2 on the Vegas Golden Knights at home vs. the Colorado Avalanche.

Of course, we went with the parlay. The over easily got there, but Baylor beat Vanderbilt, 45-38.

And the Rockets handily dropped the Celtics, 127-113.

And the Vegas Golden Knights edged the Colorado Avalanche, 2-1.

Damn.

There were still more college football bowl games going into the weekend, but we decided to take a look on the Alabama-Oklahoma  Orange Bowl.  Did we see value in either side? Not particularly. The total, which was being bet all the way up to 80.5? No, though we had a slight lean to the under at that number.

We decided to play one pattern that bettors had seen all year — Alabama in the first-half. Bettors had profited handsomely by playing the Crimson Tide as they blasted out of the chute in the first half. So Alabama -8.5 in the first-half seemed like a reasonable investment once again. The Tide didn’t disappoint as its explosive offense rang up 28 unanswered points before Oklahoma got on the board. The first half ended with Alabama leading, 28-10.

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While the outcome was never in doubt down the stretch, there was considerable drama in the point spread. Oklahoma, at +14.5, scored late to narrow the gap to 45-34. Then an Alabama back broke free and threatened to score again with the clock winding down. But Alabama lined up in a victory formation for the final play, Sooners bettors had their backdoor cover and the total slipped under the final (and somewhat inflated) number.

There’s plenty more college bowl action starting with Dec. 31, and continuing through the week. In fact, on Jan. 5, North Dakota State meets Eastern Washington in the FCS Championship. (The Bison are 14-point favorites.)

But most of the attention will be focused on the Jan. 7 title game where Alabama is -6 vs. Clemson, and the total is pegged at 59.5.

And if that isn’t enough football, NFL wild card games will be played on Jan. 5 and Jan. 6.

And the UNLV Rebels basketball team? They next host Colorado State on Jan. 2.

They will bring a decidedly mediocre 6-6 record into the game.

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