By DANIEL BEHRINGER
LVSportsBiz.com
The NBA is not for the faint-hearted sports bettor.
NBA translates to “No Betting Allowed,” according to one long-time local observer.
And a professional handicapper said recently he was beating the game in college football and the NHL — but didn’t “mess” with the NBA.
Too volatile, too unpredictable, some would say.
Or is it?
Our week started Tuesday with college hoops and Colorado laying 4.5 vs. New Mexico. We checked the numbers carefully and a couple of other “experts” agreed. But the Buffaloes stumbled out of the gate, then rallied in the second half to win but failed to cover in a 78-75 victory. We reviewed the data for college hoops that day and discovered something interesting. In the five college games that day that most local books posted, underdogs covered all five. And two, Penn and Denver, won outright.
And what happened in the NBA the same day? The three favorites, Houston, San Antonio and Toronto, all covered though the Rockets did so by the hook.
Of course, that’s only one day of data. Too small a sample, most would say. And we don’t disagree. (But if you’d parlayed the five college ‘dogs and the three NBA favorites, what a Merry Christmas it would be.)
Wednesday brought a full slate of NBA action but the Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors was arguably the marquee match-up. The Raptors appeared totally dominant, won three quarters of four, and soundly thumped the Curry, Thompson & Durant Show, 113-83. They also did it on the second half of a back-to-back after beating (and easily covering) vs. the Clippers, 123-99, a day earlier.
We’ve often stated that bettors will do well by riding winners and if you played the Raptors on the back-to-back, you were a happy bettor.
Meanwhile, on the same day, the Vegas Golden Knights outlasted the New York Islanders, 3-2. The Knights’ road record hasn’t been impressive this season so we regarded the VGK at -150 on the betting line with a high degree of suspicion. But if you were willing to lay 3-to-2 on the local team, you deserved a winning ticket.
We had moderate interest in the Thursday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to play the Kansas City Chiefs. While most of the public money was on the Chiefs at -3.5, we thought playing the total under in a game being playing outdoors in December held some value. In fact, by the time we got to the window, the public had driven the total to 55. We gladly played under that, and weren’t disappointed with a 14-7 first-half score. But down two touchdowns, the Chargers mounted a stirring rally and their 2-point conversion to win the game, 29-28, doomed our ticket.
On Friday, we experienced an interesting phenomenon called Bet Relief. The buzz on talk radio was that the Vegas Golden Knights were a reasonably smart bet at a not unreasonable price on the road vs. the New Jersey Devils. We agreed, but couldn’t get to the window in time. When we looked up a little later and the Knights were beating the Devils, 4-2, we lamented our decision to not hustle to the window. But still later, we learned the VGK had blown the lead and lost in overtime, 5-4.
Ah, Bet Relief.
(Circling back go the NBA, the red-hot Raptors lost as small road favorites to the Portland Trail Blazers, 128-122. Of course, we had invoked the No Betting Allowed mantra for this game.)
If you wanted to duck out on Christmas shopping on Saturday and watch sports, you had multiple options. There were seven college football games as part of Bowl Week One, college hoops, the NHL and the NBA. Not enough for you? Over on the NFL Network, there were two pro football games including the prime time match with the Cleveland Browns at the Denver Broncos.
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We and numerous other bettors liked Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl even though the number had drifted to as high as -6. Playing the first-half at -3 turned out to be a push, but the Bulldogs put away the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second half, 31-20 for a relatively easy cover.
On the same day, UNLV’s basketball team notched a win as -6 point home ‘dogs over BYU, 92-90. The Rebels are now a respectable 6-3 ATS.
Finally, if you were looking for an early Christmas gift, you had only to turn to the NFL late Sunday where the Philadelphia Eagles toppled the high-flying L.A. Ram, 30-23. The Eagles were 13.5-point underdogs, and the Eagles money line rose like a trending stock before closing at at +600.
You had only to supply the gift wrap.
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