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Our best guess was that a pumped-up Cowboys offense with Amari Cooper on board along with a respectable Titans team could push that total over. We read the stats on points per game for both the Cowboys and the Titans, and they were not impressive. We read a few of the touts, most of which favored the Cowboys to cover at -5 or -4.5.
In the end, we didn’t make the play. Which is all right since we should only bet the really solid picks, right?
A late Titans touchdown sealed Tennessee’s 28-14 win over Dallas. So the over got there, but not in the way we expected.
And so it goes in the NFL, where only the strong and well-protected bankrolls survive in true Darwinian fashion.
By Tuesday, we had turned our attention to college basketball. Yeah, so if college football, the NFL, the NBA and the NHL aren’t enough to fire your imagination, college hoops got underway with a full slate of action and four premier teams, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and Michigan State in the Champions Classic.
We laid -5 on Kansas for the game and -2.5 in the first half, reasoning that a solid Kansas team returning most starters would prevail over a Michigan State team that typically starts slow. (Full disclosure: We are Michigan State fans and like to think we know when to play for and against this team.)
And we were pretty pleased with ourselves when Kansas jumped out to strong first-half lead. With Kansas extending its lead to as much as 17 points, we were already cashing our ticket for the game as well.
But as so often happens in college hoops, the underdog made a comeback, tightening the lead to 10 points. Then five. Then three and another photo finish. Our ticket landed right at -5 for a push though some bettors cashed on a -4.5 line.
Sigh.
We had tepid interest in the MAC college football games on Wednesday. We thought the surging Ohio Bobcats (-4) would roll over Miami Ohio and also thought the Toledo Rockets (+3.5) would give the Northern Illinois Huskies a battle. A computer simulation we sometimes look at showed Toledo winning outright. We didn’t put any money to risk, however, and that turned out to be a good thing as Miami Ohio upended Ohio and Northern Illinois rolled to an easy win over Toledo.
On Thursday, we peeked at NHL numbers and decided there might be some value on the Ottawa Senators at +140 vs. the much-beloved Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights won a previous matchup against Ottawa but that was on home ice, and we thought Ottawa was the right side here. An early look showed two-thirds of the money was on Ottawa so we ventured a couple of units on Ottawa straight up and also on the puck line. By the time we got to the window, the book was teasing us with +155.
We also noticed a pretty good match-up on Thursday Night Football with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers seem to be on a roll now, but we didn’t plan to invest any money.
Our choices were not fortuitous.
The Knights cruised to a 5-3 win over the Senators. But the Steelers covered handily against the Panthers and the total went over.
Crap.
By late in the week, we had focused our attention in three Big 10 college football games — Ohio State at Michigan State, Wisconsin at Penn State and Maryland at Indiana. The buzz on talk radio was that no one was taking Michigan State at +3.5 and the number would inevitably climb. We thought Wisconsin was closer than a 8.5-dog at Penn State. We liked Indiana at -1 to take out Maryland, which has been battered by questions about the program after the death of a student-athlete.
In the end, we put our money on Ohio State. The number had jumped to -4 at one of the square local books but we felt that was a fair price. And we watched a bit as the Buckeyes rolled to a 26-6 win. Wisconsin lost to Penn State, 22-10, but missed a great opportunity late for a back-door cover (though we don’t imagine any QB says in the huddle, “Hey guys, great shot at a backdoor cover here, let’s make it happen, on 2” before calling the play.) And the number on Indiana moved to -2 at most locales, which was perfect, since the Hoosiers hung on to win, 34-32.
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Zealous readers of these posts remember our prediction last week that Utah State would dispatch San Jose State. That number opened at -29.5 and closed at -31. And the Aggies rolled to a 62-24 win. Our ticket was -20 on the first half, and we watched as Utah State stormed to a 38-10 first-half lead.
We don’t often offer tips here so consider that your pre-Thanksgiving lagniappe.
Late Saturday, with Ohio State and Utah State in the bag, we made one last modest investment. This was on the Montreal Canadians. We were offered +115 vs. the VGK and that seemed like a good price since the Knights are winding down a road trip. When Montreal prevailed, 5-4, we were not particularly surprised.
(Actually, in both of the last Knights’ hockey games, the over was probably the smarter play with scores of 5-3 and 5-4 going over posted totals of 5.5 relatively easily.)
No Saturday recap would be complete, however, without noting UNLV’s upset of San Diego State, 27-24. The local team was a 24-point underdog so the outright win was almost as likely as a sequential royal flush on a tight-fisted slot-machine. If you had the money-line wager at +1200, we are singularly impressed.
That was enough gambling for the week. We noted a few early NFL scores on Sunday morning. The Titans stopped the Patriots winning streak with a 34-10 win. The Browns won outright against Atlanta, 28-16. And with the Bills upsetting the Jets, who were -7 in many locales, we deduced the books won back a good chunk of the change they lost last week when favorites largely ran amok.
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