On Sports Betting: You never know which way the ball bounces in the NBA

Sometime last Monday, we looked at a website and saw the Golden State Warriors were leading the Chicago Bulls, 92-50.

It was a halftime score. Halftime.

The Warriors Wrecking Crew of Curry, Thompson, Durant & Co. went on to win the game, 149-124, shattering records for three-point shooting in doing so.

If you enjoy high-scoring romps, you probably enjoyed this game. If you parlayed the Warriors -11 and over 227.5 (we didn’t), you had another reason to sit back and enjoy.

It was quite a performance in the frequently unpredictable NBA, a betting venue in which we rarely venture.

With the NBA underway, we heard some chatter Tuesday on talk radio about the potential for the Rockets-Trail Blazers game going under the total, which had been bet down from 225 to 222.5 or 222. Out in the Twitterverse, someone suggested the first half total of 108.5 or 108 would also be a good play. Both “unders” came in easily, showing that a little research can sometimes pay dividends even in the highly risky NBA venue.

Later Tuesday, we saw the Vegas Golden Knights fell, 4-1, to the Nashville Predators as apparently the local team’s scoring woes continue.

We found a college game we liked on Wednesday and took the highly unusual (for us, anyway) step of parlaying the favored Toledo Rockets -18 with “over” 65. It was Halloween, and we were in a festive mood. Only one problem: The final score of 45-13 fell short of the total, which landed at 64.5. So that ticket, like many before it, went through the shredder.

Thursday dawned anew and we liked a computer projection showing Northern Illinois would handily dispatch Akron. We also had a tip on a first-half side an NBA game. We had made a note to take a look at playing against the Vegas Golden Knights, which are looking more and more like a second-year expansion team.

The NBA side was not even close, which was a not-too-subtle reminder to consider the source. Northern Illinois did get there but needed a fourth-quarter pick six to cover. Fortunately, they don’t press you on those details when you go to the window. And the St. Louis Blues, short chalk at around -120, handily dispatched the VGK, another not-too-subtle reminder to heed our gut instincts.

We found considerable entertainment value, however, in the Thursday Night Football game between the Raiders and the 49ers. The touts and media were abuzz with the injury-riddled 49ers and a rookie quarterback going against veteran Derek Carr and the Raiders. In fact, we literally watched the line move late from Raiders +2 to +1, then to even money and then Raiders -1 at -120. It was clear there was a sweeping tide of black and silver money, both square and sharp, on the Raiders.

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But it was the the 49ers and their rookie quarterback, Nick Mullens, who showed up. All Mullens did was put in one of the best debuts stats-wise by a quarterback in the NFL.

And the Raiders fell again, this time 34-3. <Insert Raiders laugh track>

We woke up to college football on Saturday with three games on our immediate radar. Clemson -38 or so to run roughshod over Louisville, Georgia -9.5 to dispatch Florida, and Penn State +13 to give Michigan everything it could handle in what we thought would be a very close game. The first two game in handily, but Michigan flattened Penn State, 42-7. Of course, we only bet the latter game.

The games, along with the Breeders Cup Classic, drew a large crowd to at least one local race and sports book on Saturday. Even a custodian paused notably at one point from filling his trash can with abandoned parlay sheets and crumpled up tickets  to look up at the big screen and take in the action.

We turned our attention to the late games and jumped on Alabama -14, seeing no reason not to ride the Crimson Tide’s success. Alabama’s well-followed and widely publicized first-half winning streak continue when they jumped out to a 16-0 first-half lead. And the final score of 29-0 with a ticket that read -14 allowed us to cash a ticket for the day.

We also leaned slightly toward Fresno State -27 and the over vs. UNLV (around 60) and Utah State -18 vs. Hawaii (73), but didn’t play either. We also had a slight lean toward the VGK, reasoning that a return to the friendly confines of T-Mobile would help the local team. The price of -140 wasn’t much of a lure, however, although the Knights came up with a 3-0 victory. In case you woke up late (or was it early?) because of the return to standard time, Fresno State covered handily as did Utah State. But neither over came in.

By Sunday we thought seriously of making a very square play: The seemingly unstoppable Kansas City Chiefs -8 vs. the Cleveland Browns parlayed with the over. We backed off the over of 52.5, but fired away at the Chiefs, which had jumped back to -8.5 at one square local joint. The final was 37-21. What was it we said about following our gut instinct?

In fact with the Chiefs in the win column, the Vikings drubbing the Lions and the Bears mauling the Bills, we suspected early the public was having a very good day. Our suspicions were confirmed later when, after the Patriots beat the Packers by two touchdowns, it was reported sports books lost anywhere from $7 million to $10 million for the day.

And while we rarely often predictions here, we will probably play hard-charging Utah State in the first half and for the game when they host San Jose State on Saturday. The early line is -29.5.

If you’re going to make that play, however, you may wish to consider one thing: the source.