The betting weekend opened with a bang.
Or a thud, depending on how you look at it.
UNLV was getting anywhere from 9.5 to 12.5 points vs. Air Force. Several handicappers of note thought Air Force was the wise play. We agreed.
For a while in the second half, it looked like Air Force was pulling away, leading 41-21 at one point. But as unlikely as it seems, UNLV mounted a comeback, closing to within 41-35. Which was the final score. And a cover for those who bet and backed the Rebels.
The total of 54 went “over” fairly easily.
On Saturday, another game caught our attention — the annual rivalry between Michigan State and Michigan. We saw reports of wind and rain for the game and that focused our attention on the total.
We thought two relatively respectable defenses plus the possibility of weather, which we checked independently, might slow scoring. In fact, there was a relatively low total, 40, posted for the game.
We played “under,” the first-half total of 20 though we had to lay -120. But that total was never seriously threatened. (Full disclosure: We are Michigan State fans and follow the team reasonably closely.)
A few respected handicappers, noting Michigan State’s dominance in the series, strongly backed Michigan State +7 or 7.5. But we thought this would be a low-scoring game, and we weren’t disappointed. The total was even bet down to 38.5 in some spots.
We wish we had gone a little bigger on that bet, but we always have that feeling when we land on the right side. But once you’ve analyzed a game, reviewed all the data and have a good feeling about it, it’s sometimes worth going a unit or two higher.
We watched a little of the high-scoring affair between Alabama and Tennessee. As a few have noted, the Crimson Tide have earned a reputation as a solid first-half cover. And they did it again Saturday, laying 20 in the first half, but rolling to a 44-14 first-half lead over the Volunteers. In fact, they covered the 29.5 line for the game, too, and covered the total of 57.5 by themselves (which would have made an interesting prop bet).
You could have made the squarest of all parlays, Alabama and the over, and been in tall cotton by late Saturday afternoon.
We had some interest in the Mighty Ducks at the Golden Knights. With the Knights -175 favorites, we were briefly tempted by the underdog and a sweet buyback. But computer simulations showed the Knights winning by a goal. The Knights won, 3-1, and some savvy handicappers may have profited by playing the Knights on the puck line.
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We stayed away from the NLCS game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers although we had a slight initial lean to the Dodgers at roughly even money. We expected a close, hard-fought game, and our only real complaint was that the game was telecast on the somewhat obscure Fox channel FS1 while ESPN aired more college football. We understand the waning interest in baseball and the national audience’s insatiable appetite for football. But it’s still irksome. (The Dodgers won, 5-1.)
In fact, by that time, we had OD’d on football anyway and were watching the dramatic 1995 version of “Rob Roy” with Liam Neeson and Jessica Lange.
But there was also considerable drama in the game between Ohio State at Purdue. We heard radio chatter at midweek from sharp bettors taking Purdue at +14 and even betting the Purdue money line at anywhere from +350 to +400. A few were obviously elated when the Boilermakers beat up on the Buckeyes, 49-20. The line eventually closed at Purdue +12.5.
No pro action on Sunday. We were somewhat intrigued by the total in the Bengals at the Chiefs game, which was bet down from 58.5 to 56.5. When we see a high total, we sometimes assume the squares have driven it higher and we can play under. But sometimes, too, we are wrong. The Chiefs-Patriots total for the Oct. 14 game went as high as 60 in some places, but settled at 59 in many locales. In case you’ve forgotten for some unfathomable reason, the final score was 43-40. (The Chiefs drubbed the Bengals, 45-10, on Sunday Night Football, and the total came tantalizingly close to 56.5.)
Many wild games with wild finishes in the NFL, but we did notice the usually reliable Patriots rolled to a 38-31 win over the Bears. That was a cover for the Patriots, which were laying anywhere from two to three points. And again if you parlayed a popular favorite with the “over,” you cashed a nice ticket.
An obviously jam-packed sports weekend, and we didn’t even go near the NBA.
Stay lucky, and go bigger when you can.